I was traveling over the weekend so I'm once again in catch-up mode, and thought I'd start with some additional ideas on this Honduras mess, with a particular eye toward the fallout for Brazil.
Bloggings by boz, who if you are not acquainted with by now I would suggest doing so, has spelled out what I consider as of now the most reasonable dissection of where Honduras goes from here all thing considered.
With that out of the way, what does this portend for Brazil's future as burgeoning regional big cheese?
First, there was the Brazilian Congressman Raul Jungmann of the Popular Socialist Party (PPS), the only Brazilian to be part of the international observers' team monitoring the elections in Honduras, commenting that Lula and Co. risk isolation from the international community if Brazil does not reconsider its stance. Furthermore:
"It's inevitable that the government changes position, maybe not now, but at the end Brazil will have to recognize that the electoral process in Honduras did effectively abide by democratic principles."
Next came some murmurs out of Brasilia that the government may indeed reconsider its stance pending further domestic developments in Honduras.
Business Monitor International's Risk Watchdog blog pretty much nailed the implications of this:
Lula's diplomacy will add another dimension to global efforts to find a diplomatic solution to resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. Will this help secure Brazil a permanent seat on the UN Security Council? Or will Lula risk a diplomatic misalignment and an awkward relationship with Washington?
Both could be the quick answer, but I believe that the key ultimately lies in Brazil's positioning relative to Latin America. Let's face it, Germany, Russia and China are no more happy about the call for economic sanctions against Tehran, than Brazil, which is keen to maintain key bilateral trade and investment ties with the oil producing country.
A Fine Line
As such, we come back to Lula's position on Honduras and what this reveals about Brazil's foreign policy. Honduras has become the latest stage for an ongoing play in which Brazil's government navigates a fine line between being friendly with the regional nationalist and populist governments of Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and Daniel Ortega's Nicaragua, and demonstrating regional political and economic prudence. However, Lula has sent a clear message to the world - aimed particularly at the global investment community: Emerging Markets (EM) is where it's at, and forget G7.
The Brazilian leader endorses closer trade links with China, Russia, India and Iran, while equally promoting his own country as a top destination for FDI. When it comes down to it, therefore, Brazil is putting all its money on EM. The questions arises, therefore, will Lula be able to tread this line without tripping over into international isolation?
While next year's election should be some guide on where Brazil's foreign policy will ultimately be headed, Chávez & co will watch with great interest if Brazil will maintain its balanced approach, or if Latin America's largest country could potentially be an ally in the making.
Bottom line: Lula was enough of a realist to understand why he didn't get elected the first three times he ran for president of Brazil...and enough of a realist to understand what did get him reelected after he finally won. I'm betting that Brazil keeps the balanced approach.
Leave a comment