Results tagged “russia”

From Megan Stack's article in the Los Angeles Times:

"There's no future in Russia for pro-American policy," said Nikolai Zlobin, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the World Security Institute in Washington. "You can build your whole career based on anti-American policy -- build a political career, become a famous journalist or public figure. But if you promote the idea of friendship with America, you'll be denounced immediately."

The Cold War is a faded relic in American memory. Now there are Iran and North Korea to worry about; a few years ago, there was Saddam Hussein. And so it is perhaps easy to forget that, in Russia, the Cold War remains a poignant and powerful idea.

Talk of current events often conveys the distinct sense that Russia is clinging to the idea of an American threat. If there is no hostility with the United States, the thinking runs, it can only mean that Russia is no longer important enough to merit it. And that's unpalatable to Russia's political elite.

Remember those halcyon days - like last Thursday - back when lots of people thought that the United States and Russia were on the brink of diplomatic breakthrough? The Obama administration appeared perfectly willing to ditch the Polish and Czech missile proposal for a joint system located in Russia, while the Russians opened up their territory for more supply shipments to the conflict in Afghanistan, and some analysts were even speculating that Russia was giving up its quest for superpower status in favor of pragmatic agreements and cooperation.

Well it seems like that's all gone now, and or at least Obama's advisers were informed that there would be no significant deal reached on a START-1 replacement during this visit. Whatever happened, the talk just turned very sour in the final hours before the president's arrival to Moscow. This is probably old news for most readers, but here are the quotes which have set the tone for a disappointing summit coming up this next week. From the Financial Times:

In a television interview before his meetings with Mr Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, Mr Obama said: "It's important that even as we move forward with President Med­ved­ev, Putin understands that the old cold-war app­roach to US-Russian relations is outdated, that it's time to move forward in a different direction.

"I think Medvedev understands that; I think Putin has one foot in the old ways of doing business and one foot in the new."

Reuters is reporting that the Russian authorities are cutting down on the number of CEOs allowed to join the parallel business summit, and are planning on moving it from a luxury hotel to inside the Kremlin to keep tighter control.  That just looks bad.

U.S. businessmen are expected to use a Russia-U.S. business summit on Tuesday to press Moscow to rein in corruption and improve conditions for western companies operating in the country. (...)

"It looks like the Kremlin doesn't really want this discussion and Russian business is not very keen either," said one industry source. (...)

And in a sign of unease about the business summit, industry sources say the list of executives who will meet Obama and Medvedev may be cut to 10 from each side from 18 and access for media may also be restricted.

They also said the meeting could be moved to the Kremlin from a luxury hotel, in a further indication that Russian authorities wanted to keep a tight grip on the talks. The Kremlin declined to comment.

We often hear from U.S. observers all about the mutual interests that Washington and the Kremlin share in curbing Iran's march toward nuclear proliferation and other indications of growing hostility, yet it's funny how we usually see nothing but obstruction.  We've speculated in the past that Russia benefits most from preserving the status quo, and want to maintain their swing position.  This opinion from David Kramer is also interesting:  for one, Russia may indeed be interested in seeing U.S. diplomacy succeed in Iran (indeed they are more directly threatened), but they want to see other countries do the heavy lifting.  Secondly, they just don't have all that much influence over Tehran.  From Voice of America:

But other analysts, including David Kramer, a former senior U.S. State Department official in the Bush administration (now with the German Marshall Fund in the United States), say Russia's influence over Iran is limited.

"I've been skeptical about Russia's ability: one - to have leverage to use over Iran, and two - its willingness to do so, even if it did have it," said David Kramer. "Russia has a lot of interests in Iran: significant trade, nuclear reactor construction, energy, arms sales. And I've been of the view that Russia would much prefer for the United States and other countries to play the role of the bad guy, to lean on Iran, to be the one pushing for sanctions while Russia stays in the background."

Is it a mistake for President Barack Obama to only meet with President Dmitry Medvedev?  Andrew Kuchins thinks so.  From the Moscow Times:

There should be no illusions about where ultimate decision-making authority in Russia resides today. The "tandem" is a fiction, of course. Obama must operate under the assumption that on any issue of importance to him -- from nuclear arms reductions to Afghanistan to Iran -- the ultimate arbiter for Russian policy is Putin.

This does not mean that meeting with Medvedev is a waste of time, but it must be assumed that every position taken by Medvedev has been blessed by his mentor. Obama must also harbor no illusion that the United States can take measures in Moscow to empower Medvedev or his Western-leaning colleagues in the government.  (...)

Since Putin is clearly the most important and powerful figure in Russia, I hope that Obama does not shy away from engaging with him in an environment where they can have a real discussion. Obama should go to Putin's dacha and take a walk in the woods -- with or without translators -- and say what needs to be said in a clear and forceful way.

I like this last idea of the private talk.  With so much emphasis placed upon Russia's leadership needing to "look tough" in front of the new administration, as well as the general consensus that the Kremlin is unsure of what it wants beyond respect, this approach could help to strip away some of these extenuating factors.

The following is an English translation of an interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky in the Italian magazine L'Espresso:

My life in a gulag 

Talks with Mikhail Khodorkovsky by Gigi Riva

The political and economic interests behind his case. The difficult life in prison. His enemy Putin. The desire of redemption. Exclusive interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Russian richest man.

He will struggle, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, "until death or release." Former oligarch and patron of Yukos, in jail for the last six years for tax evasion, fraud, money laundering, is having a second trial (see box). In this exclusive interview with 'L'espresso', made possible by his lawyers who addressed him our questions in prison, Khodorkovsky pinpoints the political and economic interest behind his troubles. He talks about Putin and Medvedev as well as about Berlusconi. He speaks about the prisons and the moments in which, even today, in 2009, they can become gulag. However, he still has hope. For himself. For his country.

Mr. Khodorkovsky, may you please describe a typical day in prison?

I just couldn't resist the alliteration temptation. What we're looking at here is the broader directions that should result from next week's Obama-Medvedev powwow.

Former U.S. National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski offers a three-pronged strategy in the Financial Times for President Obama when he travels to Moscow next week. In the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, Robert Legvold offers a template for improving US-Russia relations in general. Since this is a blog, and not a newspaper or brick-sized bi-monthly periodical, I'm going to re-engineer the formats of these two articles into what should be an easy reference in the future for those not willing to plow through a 6,000-word appeal to the Obama Administration to redesign relations with Russia NOW. First, Brzezinski:

Polls show that Russia is one of the nations whose citizens are least interested in Barack Obama, and pessimistic that his leadership will head toward positive changes in international relations.  That means that if Obama were hoping to survive on the charm offensive, pitching an over-the-heads speech along the lines of the Cairo approach to the Muslim world, he will be disappointed, argues Paul Starobin on CNN.

Obama cannot call for democracy in Islamic societies while altogether ignoring its retreat in Russia. More generally, Americans, and American presidents, like to steer clear of the vocabulary of realpolitik, a language redolent of the Old Europe against which America decisively rebelled centuries ago.

The likelihood, then, is for stalemate in the contest between Obama's campaign for the hearts of the Russians and their demand to be free of American meddling in their old imperial stomping grounds.

The Russian people are probably not going to come away with a pronounced negative view of Obama -- he is acutely sensitive to cultural protocol wherever he goes and has yet to make a wrong step. But as for his global charm offensive -- this is where it comes to a halt.

Stephen Blank has an interesting new article on Forbes in which he assesses the economic damage being caused by Russia's inability to effectively reduce legal nihilism and corruption, both of which are dragging on the country's attempt to recover from the crisis.  Sticking out like a sore thumb is of course the second trial of Mikhail Khdorkovsky, which will be in full session during the first state visit of President Barack Obama.  Blank describes the Khodorkovsky trial as a "palpable judicial farce," and if President Dmitry Medvedev is unable to take action to solve the situation it will "confirm the widespread belief that he is merely a tool of his predecessor, a placeholder until Putin resumes the presidency."

When he was a candidate to lead Russia, Dmitry Medvedev denounced the country's "legal nihilism." Now, as president, he has often spoken in favor of judicial independence. Yet one year after his inauguration, with President Obama set to pay a state visit on Monday, Russia remains engulfed by a tidal wave of corruption, hamstrung by a politicized justice system that is chasing away the enduring foreign investment and economic stability that Russia so desperately needs.

President Dmitry Medvedev is actually saying pretty warm things ahead of the summit, but our friends over at the Economist couldn't resist themselves.  I've seen worse.

Remember this number

Grigory Pasko, journalist

Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда.

I recently had the pleasure of participating in a screening of my short documentary film on the Nord Stream pipeline project in the cinema hall of the Berlin historical museum.  Our modest event was graced with some impressive attendees: Nord Stream AG Jens Müller (who heads up their public relations), Neel Strøbæk of Rambol (the group which carried out the environment assessment report in accordance with the Espoo Convention); Tobias Münchmeyer of Greenpeace, Bundestag Deputy Rainder Steenblock and around 70 audience members. A discussion took place after the showing of the film.

I can't help but notice a pattern of multiplicity taking place.  When we first showed the film inside the Swedish Parliament, just one Nord Stream representative showed up.  When we were invited for a screening in the Finnish Parliament, there were two waiting there for us.  And finally, when we came to Berlin, there was a foursome.  Logically, I suppose we can expect eight Nord Streamers to come to the next showing.

From Cathy Young in the Wall Street Journal:

Given all this, a war seems unlikely. What's more probable is that Russia will seek to destabilize Georgia without military action. This saber-rattling may be meant to boost Georgian opposition to Mr. Saakashvili.

Still, Moscow's actions are not always rational. If the pro-war faction believes that the Western response to an assault on Georgia would be weak and half-hearted, it could be emboldened. In a June 25 column on the EJ.ru Web site, Russian journalist Yulia Latynina writes that the probability of the war "depends solely on the Kremlin's capacity to convince itself that it can convince the world that the war is its enemies' fault."

That is why it's essential for the United States and the EU to respond now -- by increasing their non-military presence in Georgia, expressing a strong commitment to Georgian sovereignty, and reminding Russia of the consequences of aggression. Such a statement from President Obama in Moscow would go a long way toward preventing the possibility of another tragedy.

We believe that David Ignatius's article in the Washington Post is very well worth reading today, as he discusses some of the dominant themes that came up during a recent conference sponsored by the Russian Institute entitled "What Does Russia Think?"  (oddly, I unknowingly gave yesterday's video interview a similar title).  The result is a presentation of a bouquet of modern myths about Russia - such as Putin's authoritarianism being mistaken with economic success (instead of coincidence with high oil prices), the strongman legend, the distrust and antagonism toward the outside world, and the other "heaps of memes" (as Michael Idov would describe them) that contribute to our common understanding of Russian politics.  Ignatius is aware of these shortcuts of logic and rationalism, so the argument he presents over the Grand Inquisitor paradox takes the longitudinal view that the problems Russia is experiencing are the same from 100 years ago.  Interesting stuff.

"Putin is the leader. There is no disagreement about that. Putin came to power and life improved," argued a member of the Russian Duma. He described Putin's political intuition in the way that 19th-century Russians spoke about the czar: "Putin knows what the society needs better than the society does."

I've heard of some really wild excuses by diplomats to avoid having to travel to Russia, but throwing yourself to the ground in an airport and shattering your elbow really takes the cake.

CBS News:  Clinton Won't Travel to Russia

Just kidding, HRC, get well soon.
Love, the RA blog team.

In relation to the video posted below, Paul LeGendre of Human Rights First has an opinion piece up over on Huffington Post:

In a week, President Obama will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. The agenda items of the summit in Moscow are of course numerous and complex, but it would be a mistake to let human rights concerns get lost in the mix. High among those concerns is the troubling rise in hate crimes in Russia, the government's inadequate response to this trend, and increased harassment - including at times murder - of human rights defenders. These and other outstanding human rights issues could make Russia a far less reliable partner in addressing economic, security, and other issues.

Click here to sign a letter to the U.S. president asking him to discuss these issues with Medvedev.

Glad to see we are not the only ones asking that President Barack Obama raise the issue of human rights during his visit to Russia. The following video, focused on the growing problem of hate crimes in Russia, was produced as part of a campaign by the NGO Human Rights First, which last year invited the youth movement activist Oleg Kozlovsky for an award.

TODAY: Re-set still top of the headlines; military disarmament a benefit or a loss for Russia?; Caucasus talks see no resolution; Russian academy invitation to denounce 'falsifiers'; legendary Soviet singer dies

The Moscow Times reports on Barack Obama's comments on his first trip to Russia, four years ago: 'Thinking of the Russians more as partners does mean being more thoughtful, respectful and consistent about what we say and what we do'.  ITAR-TASS reports that the Presidents have had a telephone conversation in advance of their meeting.  In the Washington Post there is an analysis of the riddles that abound in Russia political identity; with Putin's anti-Americanism and authoritarianism, will Obama strike more of a chord with fellow trained lawyer Medvedev?   A senior Russian senator has said that a breakthrough on US-Russian relations is very much a possibility.  The Other Russia reprints a letter from three US senators urging Obama to be firm on defending democratic values.   The Washington Post reports that most Russians are unaware of the US President's upcoming trip, let alone the phenomenon of 'Obamamania'.

I am still digging up good clips from my last interview with Paul Goble.  Here he reacts to the argument from Anatol Lieven's National Interest article which argued that Piontkovsky, Shevtsova, and other Russian liberals serve as "an asset to Putin in terms of boosting public hostility to Russian liberalism that if they hadn't already existed, Putin might have been tempted to invent them."  See more reactions here and here.

A friend of mine sharply rebuked me the other day for not writing enough on my blog.  While I can assure you all I haven't exactly been napping in the recliner, I will do my best to start picking up the slack while still juggling my legal workload (which lately consists several sharp knives, a hot potato, a bowling ball, and a nuclear warhead - let's hope I don't drop anything).  To begin with, why not revisit one of my favorite subjects:  the murky machinations of Gazprom-related business in Hungary, where the goulash state corporatism and Russia's most cheerful barracks live on despite the ravages of the economic crisis.  Although much of this story is background for the initiated, there is some wild news about Emfesz uncovered by Roman Kupchinsky that merits discussion.

The last few times I have checked in on this story, we've seen the Austrian company OMV backstab the Hungarians (with Russian help) in an attempt to take over MOL, South Stream vs. Nabucco continued to roil Hungarian politics (while Russo-skeptic Viktor Orban's party Fidesz made big advances in the EP elections), and lastly the tricksters behind the much maligned RosUkrEnergo trading company dissolved this shadowy group only to replace it with another proxy, known as RosGas.