A strategy that assumes the Russians will once again decouple economic and military power requires a different response than ongoing, subcritical pressure. It requires that the window of opportunity the United States has handed Russia by its wars in the Islamic world be closed, and that the pressure on Russia be dramatically increased before the Russians move toward full repression and rapid rearmament.
Ironically, in the very long run of the next couple of generations, it probably doesn't matter whether the West heads off Russia at the pass because of another factor Biden mentioned: Russia's shrinking demographics. Russian demography has been steadily worsening since World War I, particularly because birth rates have fallen. This slow-motion degradation turned into collapse during the 1990s. Russia's birth rates are now well below starkly higher death rates; Russia already has more citizens in their 50s than in their teens. Russia can be a major power without a solid economy, but no one can be a major power without people. But even with demographics as poor as Russia's, demographics do not change a country overnight. This is Russia's moment, and the generation or so it will take demography to grind Russia down can be made very painful for the Americans.
Biden has stated the American strategy: squeeze the Russians and let nature take its course. We suspect the Russians will squeeze back hard before they move off the stage of history.
Economy and Hard Power
This piece by Stratfor's George Friedman, posted over at RealClearWorld, is riddled with flaws, but still interesting to read. Once again, people are really running away with Biden's commentary and not reading between the lines.
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Wow, everytime the political debate turns to Russian demographics, western intelligentsia love to jump on it and exploit it, in a very naive way, not nothing a thing about what they are talking about. I love it also how Robert Amsterdam glorifies Biden's attack. I certainly wouldn't enjoy reading this blog on a daily basis if it wasn't for such a circus act that you guys can put together. Keep it up.
Fact is, the demographic phenomenon being experienced in Russia, which is still being debated and not clearly understood in the first place, is not isolated at all; it is also affecting other highly industrialized and urbanized overpopulated societies (Germany with 8.3 births per 1,000 people, Japan with 7.87 births per 1,000 people). One could even extend that argument to the United States, where the fertility of the non-Hispanic White population is 11.6 births per 1,000 people, whereas the Russian fertility rate is 12.1 births per 1,000 people, and has been rising steadily over the past decade, even surpassing 1980 Soviet levels which were considered stable and healthy.
Fact is, educated and urbanized people tend to better plan their families and have lower fertility rates. Over 50% of the growth in the US population, the highest demographically growing developed country around, comes from incoming Latinos (well, I don't want to sound racist or come towards any generalizations, as I myself am a born and bred Latin American, but you can do the math regarding our average education; we do breed like rabits, and it has had a potentially adverse impact on our economic and social development).
The argument above that Russia's demographics have been deteriorating since World War I is untrue. In fact, Russia had perhaps the highest population growth rate in the world during the 1910s and 1920s, averaging over 7 children per mother, and even had substantial growth throughout the 1930s (Stalin's purges). Russia did take a hit in World War II (not as bad as Belarus and Ukraine), however it's population quickly recovered during the 1950s and reached it's highest peak ever in 1991-1992.
I believe that the country is overpopulated given it's economic, geographical and climatic (not that many countries have so many large cities in such a high geographical latitude; that requires way too many resources to support and nurtue, quite unsustainable). Canada is perhaps the only country in the world comparable to Russia in geography and climate, and look at the population it can sustain.
The high death rate in Russia is a problem, also not clearly understood. However, it does have a key advantage when you compare it to other western nations. While Germany, Japan, Italy, Spain and other western countries will start feeling the heat with an ever growing aging population demanding welfare benefits and state payouts, Russia won't have to worry about it's elderly (they will die out early anyway) and will be able to invest a lot more resources into it's growing ever growing fertility rate. I see this demographic issue more as a transition (major house cleaning it get it back to being new and shiny).
Joao, I'd recommend reading all of George Friedman's article, as I think you would find it pretty divergent from the line we usually follow around here.
Regarding demographics, perhaps there are too many eager cheerleaders ... but it is a problem that I think most people believe needs to be addressed. Both Putin and Medvedev have talked about it, backing those weird programs to award people with SUVs for getting pregnant, etc.
Alfred Kokh recently wrote in his book that Russia will need to accept a very large immigration in order to remain economically competitive. He says that within about 20 years, Russia will either be majority Muslim or majority Chinese, which is quite a thing to consider.
The point, João, is that this transition has been going stable for a while already, and the government apparently needs to actually pay for more births if it wants them to happen. This agrees with my own experience among young Russian men and women: nobody really wants babies anymore (though they pay lip-service to it).
As you said yourself, the demographic phenomena are poorly understood; so writing them off as just "transitional" is unwarranted. If Russia continues to lose people, it will depend on foreigners to keep the country going -- just like the other countries you mention (except, perhaps, the US) already do. Considering Russia's politics towards its neighbors, this will be dangerous. James' point -- that Russia's Slavic population will become a minority if these trends continue -- is also interesting (and comparable to the fact that the WASP US population will also soon become a minority).
João, you should really read the article -- the conglaturatory tone you mention isn't there. Maybe you've been reading too many other things and are projecting a little here.