"If the Opel deal does not go ahead, Russia's car industry is only going to survive with the help of the state because it is just not competitive," says Elena Sakhnova, industry analyst at VTB Capital, the Russian investment bank.
Gaz and Avtovaz are significant employers in their respective home towns of Tolyatti and Niznhy Novgorod, which are as dependent on carmaking as Detroit or Flint, Michigan. The country's car industry employs 400,000 to 500,000 people, not including jobs at suppliers.
The Kremlin is increasingly worried about the potential for a social backlash as unemployment in Russia reaches an eight-year high. Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, was forced to intervene in a dispute in Pikalyovo, some 170 miles from St Petersburg, where workers at three factories blocked a highway to protest over unpaid wages.
Mr Putin forced their owners, including Mr Deripaska, to sign contracts to kickstart supplies and pay their workers.
In the words of one senior western banker in Moscow, the Opel deal "is not being driven by greed - it's being driven by fear".
