The news from Georgia is pretty bad this week. Russia is conducting large scale war games right on the border, the OSCE monitors have left, protests continue to split the country, and observers are wondering if Barack Obama will even say the g-word during his visit to Moscow. Andrei Illarionov is predicting that if Russia has decided to re-invade Georgia, they will do so right after Obama's visit.
This short video and article from RFE/RL takes a look at life in Gori, as the people attempt to rebuild their homes from the destruction of the last war while at the same time another invasion looms.
This short video and article from RFE/RL takes a look at life in Gori, as the people attempt to rebuild their homes from the destruction of the last war while at the same time another invasion looms.
illarionov the strategic analyst?? Whut a hoot! I predict that he'll follow in Aslund's footsteps, predicting 5 out of the last 0 Russian-initiated wars, just as Aslund has predicted 5 out of the last 0 Russian economic collapses.
And just to remind everyone, what's going on now is a global financial collapse, which Russia is managing pretty well at the moment.
@rkka - I really do admire your endless dedication and energy, spending so much time every day reading a blog you disagree with and leaving so many complimentary comments.
I sure hope Illarionov is wrong, and if you are careful to read what he said, he writes that IF Russia has already decided to do the Georgia War Part Deux, then he expects the timing to be after the Obama visit. Besides, Illarionov is the guy who invented Russia's stabilization fund, which you are so proud of.
Regarding Russia's economy "managing pretty well at the moment," you may want to check out the World Bank forecasts...
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLO68247420090624
or the fact the stock market has lost 20% since June 1,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/e67092e6-621f-11de-b1c9-00144feabdc0.html
or the big mess over the state-led expropriation of Telenor on behalf of Alfa Bank and Mikhail Friedman...
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/379123.htm
Good thing the oligarchs aren't in control of the government any more!
I don't want Russia's economy to fail any more than you do, and I especially don't want to see another war with more innocent lives lost in senseless violence. But there's no point in pretending as though there aren't serious concerns over both the management of the Russian economy and the possibility for renewed military action the two countries.
Indeed there are grounds for concern about possible war in the Caucasus. The trouble is, folks here talk as if the threat of war emanates from Russia. Wasn't true this past August, and there's no good reason to believe it does now.
As to the Russian economy, compare, for instance, Japan, where exports have dropped 43% on the year, and whose GDP is declining at a 13% yearly rate.
German exports are down over 28% on the year, and Germany's GDP is predicted to decline by over 6% this year.
And it isn't over in the US either. Unemployment is over 9%, and we're still shedding jobs at ~600k/month. There will be another wave of foreclosures, and commercial real estate and cedit card companies will go the way of Countrywide.
Yup, it's a global financial collapse we've got here.
And if I really wanted to point out some insane economic management, I could point to Ukraine and the Baltics.
And who in Russia owns stock???
Well, rkka, the threat of war does emanate from Russia -- you've made lots of claims to the opposite, but until now not one piece of evidence that anyone other than Russia wants war there. Just muttering something about "tie-munching" doesn't change it.
As for the Russian economy, all the other BRICs are doing much better -- Brazil's economy (and demography, let me add) are much more positive than Russia's (with an expected shrinking of 8% this year, a near Batlic level) and an unemployment level way above America's. To American foreclosures correspond the hundreds of Russian Pilyakovos. I wouldn't call this exactly a success story.
I guess it depends who you pick. If you look at standards of living, Estonia, despite the crisis, is doing much better -- no wonder people in the Pskov oblast' actually prefer to serve in the Estonian army.
Besides, you give no answer to any of the arguments (with corroborating links) that James provides. And you still haven't thanked Illarionov for inventing the
Russian stabilization fund you're so proud of.