Russia Abandons Superpower Quest?

The shift, which no Russian leader has publicly articulated, is really a change in disposition that has yet to be felt concretely. But given various internal developments -- including the financial crisis, which has ignited anti-Kremlin demonstrations in Moscow, Vladivostok, and elsewhere; military reform, which is transforming how military and civilian leaders view the West; and the ascension of Medvedev himself, who shows few signs of being a force for change but seems uncomfortable with the status quo -- there is clearly something happening in Russia.

The krizis, more than any other turn of events, has had a devastating impact on the country's sense of self. The nationalistic, anti-American harrumphing of former President Vladimir Putin's reign has subsided, replaced by a deep skepticism and a fear that Russia is on the verge of a 1998-style disaster that will destroy the ruble and wipe out personal savings. Moscow's nightclubs reflect these fluctuations nicely. A decade ago, American men were in great demand. Sometime about five years ago, there was a palpable shift, and expatriates acquired a reputation for being leeches preying on the city's oversupply of beautiful women. Now, Americans are popular again, and where it was once considered imprudent to speak English, it is thought to be chic.

The idea of "managed democracy," as Kremlin ideologists call it, is now open to question. Although there have been repeated attempts to blame the crisis on the United States -- to hear it from state-controlled television, you'd think the Lehman Brothers collapse single-handedly derailed the Russian economy -- there is a new understanding that Russia is now very much woven into the international, commercial fabric (the Kremlin's withdrawal from World Trade Organization talks notwithstanding).

"Russia cannot afford anymore to have bad relations with the United States in the middle of a financial crisis," Nikolai Zlobin of the Washington-based World Security Institute told me. "The Russian situation is not as good as the government expected. Russia is going to have a hard time in the next year or two." And there have been renewed calls, particularly by the oligarchs, for Russia to diversify its economy away from oil and gas. This diversification can only be achieved, as Medvedev has noted, by enforcing the rule of law and protecting private property.