It's an interesting move for the Obama administration to propose the involvement of Russia in an alternative anti-ballistic missile shield effort, just two and a half weeks before the state visit to Moscow. On the one hand, Washington is opening the door to a possible cancellation of the proposed sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, while on the other hand calling the bluff on the Kremlin's contention that the purpose of the entire project was directed against Russia. Now that Moscow has been invited to play a central role (which they have at least initially rejected), the onus has been passed over to their side to figure out a reasonable and cooperative solution, while previous arguments about U.S. intentions are significantly weakened.
That said, some comments from Deputy Defense Secretary William J. Lynn are breathtakingly optimistic: "A U.S.-Russian collaboration would have an additional benefit of a
diplomatic signaling to the Iranians that this is an unacceptable
course for them to pursue and that they will face a concerted
international front, should they proceed down that path." In addition, Gen. James Cartright from the Joint Chiefs of Staff said that "Probably the greatest leverage is the
partnership and the message that would send. That would be very
powerful."
The diplomacy is clear-cut in this case: if the Russians want, they can get the Polish and Czech missile sites cancelled by July 6 - and if that happened, it would probably be the biggest breakthrough in U.S.-Russia relations in recent memory. However the comments from the military brass carry some weighty assumptions, most importantly the mistaken idea that Russia is in any mood make deals right now, even if they accomplish their stated goals.
Does anyone actually think this will happen?
James you make some great points here (sorry if that statement with bring down the wrath of LaR on you).
I, for one, hope and expect that the Russian side will not miss this unique opportunity to work with NATO/Washington/Europe on the missile shield. I have long been a huge proponent of the two sides working together.
I was, therefore, quite disappointed to read that the Russian side has stated that it won't participate unless the sites in the Czech Republic and Poland are scrapped completely. That is an example to me of Russia "cutting off its nose to spite its face."
I also hope that the Russian side understands that the dynamics of this missile shield project have dramatically shifted with the change of leadership in the United States.
While it was quite reasonable to assume that the project was initially started, under Cheney/Bush, with the aim of "containing" Russia and also, perhaps more importantly, of installing new radar stations which would be able to then cover parts of Russia previously out of range; I believe that the current objectives of the Obama administration are different.
It seems to me that if Obama could scrap the whole project then he would... but that domestic pressure from the hawks prevents him from doing so. Therefore, it seems that Obama's team would like to shift the emphasis of the project to truly focus on Iran. Thus, the US is, I believe, sincere in reaching out to the Russians.
The key is, again imho, that the Russians take Obama at face value, as I have been urging Russia watchers to do with the Kremlin, and accept that this is the best opportunity to engage and cooperate with Washington in decades.
I would argue that the Russians call the bluff of the Czechs and Poles by offering their full partnership in this project. If the Russian side has existential objections to the missile shield being built in the Czech Republic and Poland then it should offer some substantial alternatives.
The ball is now in the Kremlin's court. We have now had two bluffs, one from each side, and we're waiting for the river card. Now is not the time for either side to fold its hand. Rather, like in Texas Hold'em, the two remaining players should split the pot.
I certainly hope Russia reconsiders, since such cooperation with the US is clearly good for the interests of both parties. As Timothy points out above (good comment by the way, with which I by and large agree), there is the danger that Russia (perhaps under the pressure of its own hawks -- the Russian media's anti-Americanist rhetorics make this kind of collaboration pretty difficult to justify internally without losing face) will say no.
If you want my guess... however sad I am to say so, I think Russia won't take the offer. Precisely because of its current anti-Americanism and media-funded desire to believe the world is all against Russia. And note that such an agreement would probably imply having American military personnel inside Russia -- yet another difficult pill to swallow in the current climate in Russia.
But, who knows? Maybe I am wrong. I certainly hope I am.