Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Jeffrey Gedmin, the president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, has a few suggestions:The U.S. and the EU need to consider two issues in their relations with Belarus. It's only through a coordinated approach that we'll make progress towards reform.
The first issue has to do with democratic development. The heady days of the 1990s, when it appeared that freedom was on the march around the world, have given way to a decade of democracy recession. The most troubling developments have taken place in Russia and its periphery.
Democratization in countries such as Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine will almost certainly help to curb Russia's imperial appetite. Faced with neighboring democracies, Russia would be forced to take greater stock of its affairs at home. Garry Kasparov, the chess champion turned Putin opponent, thinks of an inside and an outside game if you want to support Russian democracy today. Mr. Kasparov argues that the outside game -- what happens in Russia's neighborhood -- may be as important as what's happening inside Russia.
Let's encircle Russia with states that provide a powerful model for democratization. It has been 20 years since George H.W. Bush gave his "Europe, Whole and Free" speech in Mainz, Germany, and the project is only half complete.
Second, the prospects for political change in Belarus may not be as bleak as some believe. True, the opposition is weak. For his part, Mr. Lukashenko never fails to disappoint. Despite all evidence to the contrary, the regime calls into question the fact that the mass graves on the outskirts of Minsk are the work of Stalin's henchmen. And Mr. Lukashenko is the only ex-Soviet leader to have proudly retained the name "KGB" for his security services.
Hm. How about some facts.
Population 1991
Belarus- ~10.5 million
Ukraine- ~51 million
Population 2009
Belarus-9.6 million (~900,000 lost since 1991)
Ukraine - 45.7 million (~5,300,000 lost since 1991)
Birth rate, 2009
Belarus-9.71/1000 population
Ukraine-9.6/1000 population
Death rate 2009
Belarus-13.92/1000 population
Ukraine-15.93/1000 population
Migration
Belarus - +0.11/1000 population
Ukraine - -0.38/1000 population
And the fallout from Chernobyl went north...
While neither country is doing well, I'd say that the more pressing question is what to do about Ukraine.
But only if you care about things like people you know, living.
This is sooo typical is of the little brains in the West.
When Lukashenko is close with Russia he is branded a dictator and sanctions are imposed.
No that he is pissed Russia is calling his bluff and telling him to get real regarding economic subsidies, the West is making noises about how he might be a reliable partner and "Second(ly), the prospects for political change in Belarus may not be as bleak as some believe...."
What a crock of BS!! Russia is not the enemy and those who try to paint it as such are either intellectual dishonest, at worst, or intellectually lazy, at best.
Jeffrey Gedmin, the president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is a perfect example of a whole sub-species of Western Cold Warriors whose livelihood depends on maintaining this fantasy that Russia is the enemy.
The faster Obama and Clinton put an end to this tired Cold War thinking the better it will be for all of us.
And what about Turkmenistan, which is like 43803429340 times worse than Belarus. It's suddenly a state Europe can do business with.
But, looking back, lol at the EU being so high and mighty. Look at its history - slavery, carving up Africa, exploiting everything and everyone for gold and oil, etc etc
"Jeffrey Gedmin, the president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is a perfect example of a whole sub-species of Western Cold Warriors whose livelihood depends on maintaining this fantasy that Russia is the enemy."
Couldn't put it better myself. This sort cares not a rip how, or even whether, people in the former "Captive Nations" live, only that their governments vituperate Russia while they do so.
It probably drives 'em nuts that Russia has the second highest birth rate of any major country in Europe, exceeded only by France. Russia clearly has a future, though things did look bleak under the drunken incompetent comprador buffoon Yeltsin. The people Western Cold- Warriors want to direct their spite towards Russia don't seem to.
Timothy, I agree with you to an extent. There's a lot of wishful thinking in European policy. Just as they thought Saakashvili was a nice president (he had a great education, he was his country's hope...) despite all his authoritarianness, they're now saying maybe, just maybe, Lukashenka isn't that bad. Just because suddenly he's making positive noises about the EU, and he's so far withheld recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (just, I suppose, to show Putin he doesn't want to be downgraded to viceroy status by a presumably centralist government of the Russia-Belarussian union).
Lukashenka is still as much a Pinochet lookalike as he was before. Wishful thinking is wishful thinking, and someday the EU will pay for it.
But the basic idea remains that it would further the cause of democracy to strengthen democratic regimes around Russia. This would make
Russia is not the enemy, unless it chooses to make itself so ('self-fulfilling prophecy'). But if you want to see "a whole sub-species of Western Cold Warriors", look at a large portion of the Russian media. Their livelihood depends on maintaining this fantasy that the West is the enemy.
"Fear of the other" is, alas, everywhere, especially for those -- in the West and also, alas, in Russia -- who confuse Russian present and Soviet past.
Asehpe, Lukashenko is no Pinochet look-alike. Pinochet killed tens of thousands, while in Belarus people die a lot less than they do, for instance, in Ukraine.