More than a few conspiracy-minded observers like to talk about a big evil plan in the Kremlin to recreate the Soviet Union and annex its neighbors. The goal, they say, is to swallow up more territory and power while toppling any independent governments - an argument that does not sound so paranoid following the invasion of Georgia and the possessive embrace of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Although it has been a historically uncomfortable position to find yourself located between Europe and Russia, I don't find the big conspiracy arguments very convincing - which is not to say that the Kremlin's conduct in the near abroad is harmless. Very few can speak with much authority about what the future will bring for Russia and her neighbors, and fewer know what the ultimate aims of its foreign policy are, but the physical conquest of sovereign territory doesn't quite fit the M.O. in many respects. Recent conduct shows a greater interest in an informal empire - ownership of the critical strategic industries and influence in the capitals, rather than incorporation into the Federation. Hidden behind the great power ideology and quest for "respect" are some fat bank accounts of the siloviki which need padding. And of course there are others who say that even if Russia wanted to do these things, they lack the power.
Still, there are those who think that beyond ownership and control, that Russia wants to usurp entire nations like Ukraine. Paul Goble has a new blog post featuring comments from Yuri Shcherbak, a former Ukrainian ambassador, which takes the extreme view on Moscow's ambitions. Shcerbak says that Russia views Ukraine as a "failed state" which may require intervention and seizure: "The idea of the division of Ukraine into parts is completely seriously being worked out at various levels of the powers that be in Russia." He also points to comments made about Ukraine by Vladimir Putin at the Bucharest Summit (when the PM said that Ukraine is not a country) which "are called in military language the ideological-propagandistic preparation of a future operation for the seizure of the territory of a sovereign state."
I think everybody hopes that he is proven wrong.
Still, there are those who think that beyond ownership and control, that Russia wants to usurp entire nations like Ukraine. Paul Goble has a new blog post featuring comments from Yuri Shcherbak, a former Ukrainian ambassador, which takes the extreme view on Moscow's ambitions. Shcerbak says that Russia views Ukraine as a "failed state" which may require intervention and seizure: "The idea of the division of Ukraine into parts is completely seriously being worked out at various levels of the powers that be in Russia." He also points to comments made about Ukraine by Vladimir Putin at the Bucharest Summit (when the PM said that Ukraine is not a country) which "are called in military language the ideological-propagandistic preparation of a future operation for the seizure of the territory of a sovereign state."
I think everybody hopes that he is proven wrong.
Suppose he's proven right.
Will you apologize for your condescending dismissal with terms like "extreme" and "conspiracy-minded"?
And if you do, how much consolation do you think that will that be to the newly-subjugated people of Ukraine and/or Georgia and/or someplace else?
Lucky enough for you, you won't be one of them, now will you?
Is it really that "extreme" to suggest that a proud, career KGB spy might be involved in a conspiracy?
Some might have thought it and "extreme conspiracy" theory, a year before it actually happened, that Mikhail Khodorkovsky would be railroaded into a Siberian prison cell, no?
Yes, if the Ambassador is proven right and Russia invades and occupies Ukraine, I will personally apologize, recant, and withdraw all of the above comments.
Just because I don't think that Russia is aiming to physically re-create the Soviet Union in terms of real estate doesn't mean I think they are a good neighbor. It's clear Russia's conduct toward the Baltics and Eastern Europe is deplorable and disrespectful of each nation's hard-earned sovereignty. In fact, I think it would be much worse to become a Kremlin client state like Belarus than to suffer an invasion. At least then they wouldn't have to pretend like they were still independent.
Best laugh I've had in days! But really, what would be the point? It is manifest that Ukraine cannot pay their bills, and as the fact that Ukraine is an economic dependency of Russia becomes clear, Russian influence there will increase.
Ukraine is a kind of geopolitical phenomenon .
If you analyzes the relation between the " pro-russian" and " pro-westen " votings , you can see that they nearly divide the country throught a north-south axis which corresponds roughly to the soil and the climate and the vegetation ............
So you can say that Ukraine is Russian on a part of it by its geology and its climate ! [ A theory exposed at the begenning of the XX th century for German occuppied Alsace and Moselle provinces which were " geologically " French )
I will provide you a map !
As talking of a " failed state " , i think that we can rank Ukraine , but for others reasons , at the level of Mexico .
The fact is that millions of Russian speakers are trapped in non-Russian lands and this is seen as a factor of instabilty shared by many geopoliticians .
Even those who defends Ukraine sovereinity .
Recovering them will be a also a good help for Russian demography .
We have also to talk of Rumanian speakers in Bucovina ........
German war planners of the XIX th century have seen these divisions and envisaged a partition of Ukraine according speaking frontiers in the case with a war with czarist Russia .
The GREAT problem of Ukraine is that it controls the Baltic- Black sea isthmus which implies a North-South communication axis and in geostrategics it always faced an East-West division .
But now this North-South axis reflects a TRUE political division .
The Ukrainian case is totally different from South Ossetia or Abkhazia which are non ethnic Russians regions and even non Russian speaking regions . Even more for Georgia !
What Damn Russia will do with more Georgians ........
It had to put them in military transport planes and expell them ...........
Ukraine is, in many respects, a geopolitical nightmare. It is reminiscent of those African colonies that were carved out of totally different, often enmical ethnic groups by the colonial powers, practically assuring that they would never have a calm and peaceful life as independent countries.
The Ukrainian people have suffered enormously in the USSR, during the Tsarist times, and even before -- and this despite Ukraine having seen the birth of the first East Slavic nation, the first to call itself 'Russian' (Kievan Rus'). I do pity them, and I hope some sort of solution can be found for the immense dilemmas that plague this country.
And I pity them for having a neighbor with such hostile press as Russia, whose government also keeps making statements about Ukraine as if it had more of a right to say what Ukrainians are or think than the Ukrainians themselves.
What is it like to be a Russian in Ukraine? How many of them see anything other than what Russian TV tells them? Are the seeds of future civil wars being sown? Wouldn't it even be better for Russian politicians if the problem were entirely internal -- if some sort of fight between Ukrainian Russians and Ukrainians started while Russia benevolently tsk-tsks on, till the situation gets so difficult that Russian intervention becomes "unavoidable"?...
RKKA:
Oh my dear, you are not getting out enough. It's equally clear that Russia can't pay its bills, that's why it is going begging for foreign loans just like the USSR did. It's clear that the Russian economy would implode but for U.S. oil demand. Does that mean the U.S. is the rightful owner of Russia?
Did it occur to you, even for a second, that Russian exploitation and abuse (and indeed warfare) are the reasons that Ukraine faces economic difficulties? After all, Russia even went so far as to poison Ukraine's president!
Phoby, Phoby, Phoby.
You picked the wrong week to say Russia can't pay the bills, LOL!!
The Ruble is up 15% on the year, foreign exchange reserves are up six gigabucks on the week, and oil is past $60 and rising.
Looks like you'll have to swallow your ignorant, Russophobic bile yet again!
Hope it's tasty!
Rkka, it is tasty. But it's not sure. Do you really want Russia to be a Slavic Saudi Arabia -- dependent on one resource? The price of oil goes up, hooray, let's party! The price of oil goes down, oh shit, let's fire everybody! Is this how you see the future of this country?... Please, please, tell them not to spend too much of this money in internal wars between siloviki, and to please, please allow local industry to develop! To become competitive! Why isn't Russia producing even those cheap toys China is now selling everywhere?...