Leading Russian officials are loudly protesting the forthcoming NATO staff exercise in Georgia. The exercises do not involve any armed troops and are essentially a crisis management drill. Yet, as the Bard said, "the lady doth protest too much."
Since March 25, the Russian Federation has significantly increased its military presence in the occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow built up its forces, Georgia officials say, particularly in the areas adjacent to the troop separation lines in Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region. (...)
President Saakashvili stated in an interview on April 11 that Russia has 5,000 troops stationed in each of the breakaway regions. Saakashvili also went on to say that that despite the large-scale military build-up of the Russian forces both in the breakaway regions and on Georgia's borders, he did not think that Russia would "renew any large-scale military adventure." Instead, he believes these movements are aimed at "possible internal unrests [in Georgia]", i.e. aimed to destabilize his administration.
The NATO unarmed staff exercise in Georgia is the bare minimum the West can do to send a signal to Russia not to undertake another military adventure in Georgia. The question is, whether Moscow will listen - even as the Obama Administration is offering it an unclenched hand and a "reset" button.
NATO between Russia and Georgia
I just caught this post over at Heritage about the back-and-forth over NATO exercises in Georgia. It seems that the opposition protests which have seized the capital have provided a nice cover for the Russians to begin making some movements.
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"The NATO unarmed staff exercise in Georgia is the bare minimum the West can do to send a signal to Russia not to undertake another military adventure in Georgia."
Fundamentally wrong, Mr. Amsterdam.
If President Saakashvili undertakes another artillery strike on S. Ossetia, the Russian government will definitely undertake another 'military adventure', with crippling effect on the Georgian Armed Forces, despite such Western "signals".
On the other hand, if President Saakashvili refrains from repeating his insanity of 7 August 2008, then the Russian government will undertake no such military adventure.
We are long past the point where Western "signals" have any influence on war or peace in Georgia.
Really? Russia won't invade Georgia unless Georgia fires artillery into Ossetia? Russia won't invade no matter what happens in Tbilisi? Is that a promise? Did you get that straight from the Kremlin? If it somehow happens despite your promise, are you going to pay Georgia compensation? How much? What number do they call to collect?
Russia's interest in the exercises does suggest that the question is not simply South Ossetia. After all, the exercises are not in that area, have nothing to do with South Ossetia, and are approved by all parties involved. I don't see a difference between them and the naval exercises between Russia and Venezuela: neither is a threat to anyone else.
One is left to conclude that Russia does really want to have privileged rights to Georgia. And this is a pity, because it suggests that Russia is not ready to respect the rights of an independent country if it once was in its sphere of influence.
Phoby, Phoby, Phoby.
It took quite a lot of killing of Russian soldiers, in S. Ossetia under a UN mandate, to produce the Russian response of 8 August 2008. It was a war the Russian government judged likely and prepared for, which is not the same as wanting it. There is no indication the Russian government wants another, though no doubt they are again prepared for one.
In dealing with the likes of Saakashvili, the phrase "Si vis pacem, para bellum." applies with particular force.
Compare and contrast the case of Panama, which the US invaded after 1 US sailor was killed and another injured: Panama was invaded by the US, its government overthrown, its president pursued to the Papal Nuncio, which was sonically bombarded without respite by US psychological operations units until Noriega gave himself up. He was tried in the US and sentenced to prison.
Yes, the US government does really want to have privileged rights to Panama, And this is a pity, because it suggests that the United States is not ready to respect the rights of an independent country if it once was in its sphere of influence.
RKKA, RKKA, RKKA,
How many Russian soldiers died in the recent Georgian conflict?
The Kremlin led everyone to believe that 2000 Ossetians died. Of course it was less than 100 and most were killed by Russian munitions. So really, how many Russian soldiers died?
The Russian army assembled on the Russian border, a provocation indeed, for months goading Georgia into a war. Russian 'peacekeepers' for years had armed, trained, and funded the local separtists on sovereign Georgian territory against the Georgian government and the loyal Georgians resident there. Russia did not respond, but rather caused the conflict. With the conflict in Ossetia and then Georgia proper under way, Russia moved into Georgia's Abkhazia without justification.
Russia you say desires no further conflict, which is why they have placed all sorts of tanks, 1000's of soldiers, artillery and munitions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
So long Ossetian and Abkhazian indpendence. If the locals don't like it, it is a certainty that the resident Russian army will gladly and deferently withdraw.
Why is it that deprived Russians always seem to hide or lie about their true barbaric, grasping, envious, dictatorial nature.
Gary Marshall