April 2009 Archives

Note from editor:  These days, those of us who haven't yet fallen into a catatonic stupor listening to the procurators' voices droning away in a dingy courtroom in Moscow have been hearing a litany of fantastic crimes supposedly committed by Mikhail Khodorkovsky in violation of all the known laws of physics and economics, not to mention the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.

So it comes as a refreshing change of pace for us to hear something nice about Khodorkovsky for a change. We recently received this guest essay by someone who has benefitted directly from Khodorkovsky's vision, and who is keeping the faith and continuing the spread the gospel.

Vera Buldakova is an ordinary Russian schoolteacher. Or rather, she WAS one until she went through a training program on using the internet in education, offered at no cost to teachers out in the remotest Russian provinces through the Federation of Internet Education, a pet social philanthropy project of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's. Back in those days, the Russian Minister of Education was personally thanking Khodorkovsky for this massive work, while regional governors were begging to have such training centers set up in their regions.

The two-week training course changed Vera Buldakova's life. It opened up a world of opportunities, it showed her that free thought and creativity, which were taboo in the Soviet educational system, are possible and welcome and can be an incredible force for good. This was Mikhail Khodorkovsky's vision in setting up the program in the first place, and Vera Buldakova is a shining example of its success.

Today, thanks to the internet, Vera Buldakova is a citizen of the world, and continues to work in the field of distance learning through the internet. And even though the Federation of Internet Education has lost its primary source of funding, the die has been cast: some of the regional centers have managed to remain alive thanks to securing local funding, while in other areas the newly internet-savvy teachers - like Vera Buldakova - have continued to stay in touch through the internet and to teach others their arcane craft, connecting remote Russian village children with the wider world for the first time in history.

The impact of this achievement will be felt in Russia and the world for decades to come.

The following two articles are also available in Russian.  Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда.

Susan Scholl, who is an author and the Moscow burueau chief of Austrian public television, has a comment piece on Project Syndicate (Daily Star is running it) about the ongoing abuses of human rights and deepening legal nihilism as characterized by the second trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.  Scholl asks when we can expect the Russian president to stand up and prove his intentions - or whether or not anyone will ever give him such a benefit of the doubt if this travesty is allowed to pass.

When Dmitry Medvedev was elected as Russia's president a little more than a year ago, he promised to do away with the "legal nihilism" in Russia. Although he was a close confidante of Vladimir Putin and probably was able to assume presidential office exclusively for that reason, many dared to hope that he would stop the vendetta against Khodorkovsky and all those who had been close to him.

Disillusion fully set in only one year after Medvedev's election, when a new case against Khodorkovsky and Lebedev was brought, this time for embezzlement of billions and for money laundering.

A cynical observer remarked at the preliminary hearing that by the looks of it the Russian authorities couldn't make up their mind: either the former Yukos bosses didn't pay taxes or they embezzled money. But since when does one pay taxes on embezzled funds?

An official close to the situation said that Kyrgyz officials had worried that Moscow was balking at delivery of the aid but that had "calmed down" with the latest transfers. The Kyrgyz embassy said Bishkek was confident Moscow will fulfill its promises. Facing a sharp drop in budget revenues and declining reserves, the Kremlin is planning to cut back some domestic spending, but is continuing to offer financial aid to its former-Soviet neighbors.

The U.S., whose troops must leave by the end of August, has said it is still talking to the Kyrgyz government about prolonging its lease on the airbase in Kyrgyzstan, which is the main hub for ferrying troops and equipment into Afghanistan.

The government has said the eviction decision is final. Earlier this week Kyrgyzstan's prime minister denied any official talks are underway.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said on Thursday transit risks remain for Russian gas deliveries to Europe, Interfax news agency reported.

"From our point of view, risks remain. We have not yet reached guaranteed stability and we are prepared to clarify our position on this issue," Interfax quoted Sechin, who oversees Russia's energy sector, as saying.

The Russian president's attempt to rewrite the world's energy rules are reminiscent of his similarly bold proposals for a new European security architecture that would include Russia and would render NATO obsolete. Together they are a sign of Russia's wish to revive its influence in the world. Although Russia is not the most neutral player in the energy trade and is infamous in the business for its strong-arm tactics, it does not follow that the EU should dismiss Medvedev's ideas out of hand. It is time for the EU to admit that the Energy Treaty Charter never flew, not just because Russia did not complete its ratification, but because it did not include some other important energy players, such as the United States, China, India and Norway. The EU should give Russia's ideas serious consideration. International talks on energy co-operation that include all the major countries in the energy business are desirable. A preliminary discussion of Medvedev's plans at the G8 meeting in Italy in July would be welcome. The world needs a comprehensive set of coherent, transparent, legally binding rules to protect the trade in one of the most sought-after commodities, energy. Medvedev's plan gives the world the chance to think seriously about de-politicising energy.

The business daily called the ruling, which would allow the court to seize Rosneft assets abroad, the first success in a foreign court for former YUKOS managers seeking redress after the state bankrupted the oil company for tax debts and sold off its assets.

Kommersant said YUKOS Capital, an ex-YUKOS affiliate now owned by former managers, had originally won a ruling from the arbitration unit of Russia's Chamber of Commerce ordering Rosneft, which bought production unit Yuganskneftegaz at auction, to pay back money lent to Yugansk by YUKOS Capital.

The ruling was overturned by Russia's Supreme Arbitration Court, but on Tuesday, a Dutch court of appeals ruled that the original ruling could still be enforced in the Netherlands, Kommersant said.

Former YUKOS owner Mikhail Khodorkovsky, jailed for eight years for tax evasion and fraud, is facing new charges in Moscow in a trial that is seen as a test of President Dmitry Medvedev's commitment to uphold the rule of law.

Chess master Garry Kasparov staged the latest of his guerrilla hit-and-run protests against the Kremlin on Wednesday, showing up at the criminal trial of a former billionaire and engaging in a brief, heated debate with one of the prosecutors.

Spectators gawked and whispered when Kasparov sat on a front bench in the courtroom where Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man, is being tried on charges he embezzled billions of dollars while he was the chief of the Yukos Oil Company. (...)

When the judge ordered a recess, Kasparov confronted prosecutor Gyulchekhra Ibragimova as she walked past him on her way out.

During the brief and tense exchange, Ibragimova told Kasparov she respected him but added he should have been playing chess rather than wasting his time in court.

"You are an amateur" in the courtroom, she told him.

A smiling Kasparov accused the prosecution of seeking "to replace the force of law with the law of force," and suggested she and other prosecutors were "selling the honor of your profession" by pursuing the case against Khodorkovsky.

Khodorkovsky on trial: Impressions of a show trial

Marieluise Beck (Member of Parliament, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) travelled to Moscow to observe the second trial against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former principal shareholder of the oil company Yukos, and his business partner Platon Lebedev. Each was sentenced to 8 years of imprisonment in 2005 in a trial that on no account complied with constitutional standards and was obviously politically motivated. The second trial is on the verge of taking a similar course, particularly because the charge has absurd proportions and is completely contradictory to the first charge.

Read her impressions from the court room:

April 27th, 2009 A day in the county court Khamovniki in Moscow. The great "corporate criminal case" against Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev is being heard; the sum in dispute amounts to $20 billion.

The court building is unimposing and the court room is small and shabby. Brawny policeman 'secure' the room. One would rather not get in their way.

Russia and Bulgaria have apparently surmounted tensions over two days of negotiations; Russia will not use Bulgaria's existing pipeline to transit gas to Europe as part of South Stream, but will contemplate other options. The two countries are set to sign a final agreement in two weeks time. President Medvedev has held a meeting promoting international energy cooperation, focusing on the establishment of a legal framework for trading. In April Ukraine imported one third of the volume of gas that had been outlined in a supply contract with Moscow.  The country plans to offer to resurrect a $350 million joint pipeline project with Russia.  French power company GDF has denied it was in talks to buy a minority stake in the Nord Stream pipeline.  Gazprom's electricity asset Mosenegro will make $30 million less this year than it had envisaged, because of high capacity pricing set by the Market Council. Shell has reported that its profits halved in the first quarter.  TNK-BP saw profits fall by 82% in the same period but hopes that its Kamennoye field development will increase output. The Times analyzes how the company will attempt a turnaround.

Karinna Moskalenko believes that foreign leaders have a moral duty ask the Russian president difficult questions, regardless of the inconvenience. We agree. From the Helsingin Sanomat:

A day after the visit to Finland of Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, a Russian visitor of a different kind arrived in Helsinki.

Right at the beginning of the interview, human rights lawyer Karina Moskalenko, 55, takes up a matter that has caused her some consternation during her visit to Helsinki.

"Why didn't your president speak about Russia's human rights situation during Medvedev's visit? Relations between countries cannot be built without speaking about human rights. If there is a problem, it should not be kept in silence", says Moskalenko.

Putin faces an unenviable dilemma. He cannot depart without looking like a cowardly deserter. But staying on would likely be politically fatal. Furthermore, he may not be a free agent. As is widely rumored in the media, key actors may have damaging information on his accumulation of personal wealth or other dark deeds from the past, which they can use to direct him along the path they prefer.

The already embattled Georgian President Mikheil "Misha" Saakashvili's ill-fortunes don't seem to be improving. In late March, Der Spiegel published a damning account of the yet-unreleased findings of the EU inquiry into the brief August war between Georgia and Russia. In short, the article places blame for the conflict most heavily upon the Georgian leadership, particularly Saakashvili. Paired with the PR blow of the New York Times' open questioning of the Georgian account in early November, there is a shifting consensus of the narrative. However, like the Times article, the circumstances of the Spiegel piece provide context for doubt and showcases more framed innuendo than evidence.

Leaving aside for a moment what the election means for Solidarity, there are conclusions to be drawn from the Kremlin's point of view. First, the victory-producing machine is in perfect working order, with local officials, police, Kremlin-friendly activists and thugs, the courts, the media, the local election commission, and the Central Election Commission all working like gears in a well-engineered machine in a way that is as impressive as it is frightening.

 

That machine took a faceless bureaucrat who refused to campaign and produced a figure of 77 percent support that will no doubt withstand scrutiny all the way up through the Russian Supreme Court (what happens in Strasbourg is less certain, although it's a safe bet only our children or grandchildren will be around to find out).

Berdimuhamedov apparently presumes that Gazprom is not what it used to be, while probably not reflecting much on the predicament of his own gas-centric mono-state. Gazprom is indeed so tightly integrated into Russia's structures of governance that it is affected by the general economic downturn -even if the world energy prices have stabilized. Forecasts for the Russian economy are revised almost weekly -and invariably for the worse. The GDP decline in the first quarter has been corrected from 7.2 percent to 9.5 percent, so the Ministry for Economic Development now predicts a 6 percent contraction for the year (Kommersant, April 24). These macro-figures imply a 30 to 40 percent reduction in the state budget income, and if in the current year the government aims at minimal cuts in spending, covering the deficit from the accumulated reserves, by 2010 this policy will be unsustainable. Evgeni Gontmaher, an economist from the Institute of Contemporary Development that enjoys Medvedev's patronage, argues that that the presidential address in May with the key guidelines for the 2010 budget -which must be presented by the government to the parliament by August 25- could be crucially important for Russia's recovery from the devastating recession (Vedomosti, April 22).

Large-scale sequestration and cuts for every program will mean that the government has failed to identify its priorities and set Russia on a course of stagnation at the "bottom" of the crisis (www.gazeta.ru, April 22). That might suit the interests of some parts of the ruling bureaucracy, but will leave the populist demands unaddressed and the main pressure groups, from the siloviki to Gazprom, entirely dissatisfied. The ruling "tandem" is quite possibly incapable of making hard choices, as Medvedev's vague ideas about modernization contradict Putin's commitment to preserve key elements of his power system. This system of corrupt patronage and triumphant consumerism was perhaps organic to Russia in the period of petro-prosperity (Rossiiskaya gazeta, April 21). It is, however, simply not viable in the years of scarcity and survival-of-the-fittest -so the Russians are remembering Boris Yeltsin, who died two years ago, with a new respect for a leader that steered the country across a sea of troubles.

The old rulers of the Soviet Union were terrified of facing contested elections. Those of us who studied political systems presumed they must be right: Elections would empower citizens against the arrogance of government. And with the fall of the Iron Curtain, elections indeed swept the world. Yet democracy doesn't seem to have delivered on its promise. Surprisingly often, the same old rulers are still there, ruling in much the same old way. Something has gone wrong, but what?

To answer this question, I put myself in the shoes of an old autocrat--say, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak--now having to retain power in a "democracy." What options do I face? Hard as it is to bear, I have to be honest with myself: My people do not love me. Far from being grateful for the wonders that I have achieved, they may increasingly be aware that under my long rule our country has stagnated while similar countries have transformed themselves. There are even a few cogent voices out there explaining why this situation is my fault. I shake my head in disbelief that it has come to this, seize my gold pen, and start listing my options. I decide to be systematic, in each case evaluating the pros and cons.

"In the final analysis, Pakhomov's victory was an expression of public support for Putin, and his margin of victory mirrors Putin's public approval ratings," says Vyacheslav Igrunov, director of the independent Institute of Humanitarian-Political Studies in Moscow.

But let's not call it "democracy," he adds.

"I don't think the violations during the Sochi campaign were any more than is usual for a Russian election. But it's difficult to call it a democratic campaign, given the total control of the authorities over the mass media" and other levers of influence, he says.

How much does it cost to think?

The real cost of ambitious gas projects is surely unknown

Grigory Pasko, journalist

Mr. Kasparov's remarks began innocently enough. He made an offhand mention of Mr. Nemtsov, so subtle that it was easy to miss. Then he began to sling arrows at Moscow, saying Soviet Russia had supported Turkey at the time of the massacres.

Mr. Pakhomov, standing behind him on the podium, looked as if he had eaten a lemon.

Two minutes and 33 seconds into Mr. Kasparov's speech, a local official stepped forward and said his time was up. Mr. Kasparov turned to the crowd with an incredulous look.

"What's happening?" he said loudly. "I cannot speak? Maybe it's better to be silent?"

But rather than harp on the old canards about the exploited and downtrodden U.S. working class and a clique of greedy capitalists who had all the money and power, Zorin talked more about the uncertainty of life in the United States. Time and again he returned to the theme that a U.S. worker could lose his job or home at any moment.

The unspoken contrast with the predictability of Soviet life was obvious. If your cousin sends you a photo of his new car six months after arriving to New York, don't be tempted to follow him. Here, your life is stable and your right to work is guaranteed by the Soviet Constitution.

Curiously, stability has been claimed by the current regime as its main achievement. While Soviet propaganda contrasted communist stability with the unpredictable perils of the United States, now the contrast is drawn with the lawless '90s. Just like Zorin's documentaries, the implicit message from today's Kremlin is: In the 1990s, you may have had freedom, but now you've got law and order.

In an interview, Nemtsov compared the tactics being used against him to those of Hitler's propaganda chief, Joseph Goebbels. "Now we have the same here under Putin's Russia," he said.

Nemtsov, a Sochi native, said the authorities have detained his campaign workers, seized his leaflets and prevented him from renting facilities for events. Last month, unidentified assailants threw ammonia in his face outside his campaign headquarters; he says they were activists from the pro-Kremlin youth group Nashi.

"On April 24, an unidentified person handed over some papers to Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin had no understanding about the content of the papers and immediately handed them over to one of his aides," Kuznetsov said in the statement, which was written in Russian.

"As was established later, the papers were a notification, issued by the District of Columbia Federal Court, to testify in the criminal case against (ex-YUKOS CEO) Mikhail Khodorkovsky, which is being heard in a Russian court."

Below is an exclusive translation of a breaking story from the Spanish press. First published in El Pais, and also covered by several other outlets, the story concerns Antonio Valdés-García, a Spanish-Russian dual citizen who says he was beaten and tortured by Russian investigators to force him to provide false testimony against Mikhail Khodorkovsky. It should be illustrative of the weakness of the state's case that they have to nearly murder Vasily Alexanyan, and now, allegedly beat this individual to within an inch of his life to produce false testimony against Khodorkovsky. It is a story that speaks for itself.

Spaniard accuses Russian police and prosecutors of forcing his false testimony against Khodorkovsky

Antonio Valdés-García, 38 years old, a Spanish-Russian dual citizen, is accusing representatives of the Russian government of pressuring, beating, and torturing him.

PILAR BONET | Moscow 23/04/2009

Antonio Valdés-García, 38 years old, of Spanish and Russian dual nationality, has become a potential and valuable witness for the Kremlin in its case against Mikhail Khodorkovsky to close ranks around the fallen former president of Yukos. From Madrid, where he is located after having mysteriously fled from the police and courts of Moscow, Valdés-García has accused the Russian state of pressuring, beating, and torturing him with the goal of obliging him to give false testimony against the oil magnate.

"I think this decision is political," Sergei Mitrokhin, head of the liberal Yabloko party, told Reuters.

"It could be one of the signals given by the president to society about some kind of 'humanisation'. This must be hailed."

But a Bakhmina lawyer warned against drawing hasty and over-optimistic conclusions.

"It is self-evident that Bakhmina's case had been long overdue for revision because it had reached a stage when the cruelty of her further custody was just becoming outrageous," Semyon Aria told Reuters after the court's ruling.

"But this (ruling) cannot serve as an indicator of the authorities' changed attitude to Yukos, because Khodorkovsky's new case is still being heard ... This ruling (on Bakhmina) cannot be viewed as a symptom of something bigger."

Korostelina analyzed the three generations of Russian history textbooks published since 1991. She said that the first generation possessed a humanistic approach, encouraged critical thinking, and aimed to help in the formation of responsible citizens. The next generation of textbooks, in existence from1993-2006, promulgated the notion of the "nation" as the pivotal idea. These textbooks presented Russia as a unique nation, all of whose actions, including wars of expansion, serfdom, etc., were justifiable by political expediency. The books also depicted the Soviet period negatively and gave World War II an unfavorable assessment. Finally, the third and current generation of textbooks, including Alexander Filipov's recent book, is based on the idea of Leonid Poliakov, a dean of history at the Moscow State Pedagogical University, that textbooks should present "a positive unity with past." According to Poliakov, remarked Korostelina, 90 percent of students are not meant to be tasked with thinking critically about history, but need only to be presented with one, simple, positive narrative. In this approach, for instance, the USSR is positively assessed and October Revolution is compared to the French Revolution. According to Korostelina, this third generation of textbooks promotes an authoritarian regime, the primacy of the state over the individual, and strong central power, while reducing the agency of citizens.

"He has used his office to campaign," said Alexander Glushenkov, a lawyer representing Nemtsov at a court hearing of his complaint this week.

Pakhomov's lawyer Oleg Naukin denied any wrongdoing in court, saying the mayor had used a public reception office decorated to look like his office in the Russia Today interview.

When asked by Glushenkov to provide the address of the public reception office, Pakhomov's lawyer said there were 28 such offices organized by Pakhomov's campaign around the city, and he did not know which one had been used for the interview.

In the past we've blogged about the composer Arvo Pärt dedicating a symphony to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and given the second show trial, he has spoken out again in his defense.  Below is a follow up from Helsingin Sanomat:

"He is a genius, amazing, a great talent, who has a warm heart and a pure vision."

This is how Estonian composer Arvo Pärt describes jailed Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky, to whom he has dedicated his fourth symphony (Los Angeles).The European première was in Helsinki on Thursday, April 16th, just a few months after the world's first performance, which was conducted by Esa-Pekka Salonen in Los Angeles.

"All of the bad things that you have read about Khodorkovsky is propaganda put out by the Russian state", Pärt declares.

The bank said the cut was a response to lower inflation, but analysts blamed "jawboning" by Mr Putin. Its action came a day after Mr Putin met business leaders and called for lower lending rates. "There must be a higher comfort level for commercial banks, so that providing guarantees actually lowers the credit risks and, I would hope, loan interest rates," he said.

Rory MacFarquhar, an analyst for Goldman Sachs in Moscow, called the rate decision "an unfortunate episode dispelling any semblance of central bank independence".

In the past the central bank had resisted pressure from Mr Putin on exchange rate policy, "but rarely has the jawboning been quite as direct as [on Wednesday]", he said in a research note. (...)

"We think the rate cut is less a response to lower inflation . . . and more to the very poor March output data that suggest this year's GDP decline will be considerably steeper than previously expected," Mr MacFarquhar said.

At the same time, it appears that Bakhmina's premature release was not merely an act of good will toward a mother of three on the president's behalf. The circumstances in which she was granted parole make it appear that a possible compromise was reached between Bakhmina and the authorities. "It was a result of a complex political compromise, and it's important that she was paroled and not pardoned. Bakhmina was under considerable pressure, but there was a strong public campaign for her cause. She admitted her guilt, repented, and was released, not giving the new president the chance to pardon somebody who was put in jail by the old president," said Ikhlov.

«Grigory, you're not right!»

A representative of the company Nord Stream reacts to an article on the blog

Grigory Pasko, journalist

Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда.

On 23 April in the port of Slite on Gotland, I saw how workers were building a new wharf for the needs of the gas pipeline that the company Nord Stream is going to lay along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. At this very time (what an amazing coincidence!) I received a phone call from a representative of the company Nord Stream AG, a Mister Vugar Veysalov, Permitting Manager for the company Nord Stream AG, who gave me a piece of his mind for an article I had posted on the blog robertamsterdam.com.

I will remind readers of the blog about the crux of the matter in question. A letter came to one of the libraries of Vyborg (Leningrad Oblast of Russia) with an offer to place in their collection for open access the results of an expert study of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) of the «Gryazovets-Vyborg (Portovaya bay)» gas pipeline. In and of itself, the offer is not unusual: two years ago, this same company had already placed EIA materials in the libraries of Vyborg. But what was remarkable this time around was that the letter was accompanied by an offer to do this for payment.

But instead, the Moscow commentator continues, "many are concluding that the powers that be [in the Russian Federation] are sending signals [to their own people and the West] about the beginning of a change in policy direction and perhaps about the coming or a new 'thaw' or even 'perestroika.'"

The fact that Russia has hired the prominent law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton to represent its interests at an annual cost totaling millions of dollars indicates that the Kremlin is very concerned about the case. At issue here is more than just the gigantic sum of the legal damages. The process could set an important precedent in the argument over whether Russia is obligated to obey the provisions of the Energy Charter Treaty that it signed in 1994 but never ratified.

The former President of Poland Aleksander Kwaśniewski has a new column about the political crisis in Ukraine, and what can be done to save the advances won by the Orange Revolution.

Three approaches are vital in the preparation and adoption of a new constitutional settlement. First, politicisation, factionalism and any attempt to modernise the constitution in the interests of any one political leader or grouping must be avoided. That is why I warmly welcome President Viktor Yushchenko's call to declare a moratorium on political quarrels and hope to see his example followed by all parties.

Today a press conference was held in Washington DC to announce the presentation of a letter to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed by eight prestigious human rights NGOs, including Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Human Rights First, and others, to express concern over the second trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Below is the full text of the letter - we hope to post video of the event soon.

April 21, 2009

His Excellency Dmitry Medvedev
Russian Federation
Ilinka Str, No 23
103132, Moscow
Russia

Dear Mr. President:

We, the undersigned, wish to express our deep concern about the deterioration of respect for rule of law and human rights in Russia.

Obama has launched negotiations on an extraordinary range of subjects. Each has a political as well as a strategic component. Each deals with issues peculiar to itself. Each runs the risk that inherent obstacles could obscure ultimate objectives or that negotiating tactics could warp substance. But the challenges are also closely related. For example, arms control negotiations with Russia will affect Russia's role in the nonproliferation effort with Iran. The strategic dialogue with China will help shape the Korean negotiations. The negotiations will also be affected by perceptions of regional balances -- of the key participants, for Russia, this applies especially to the former Soviet space in Central Asia; for China and the United States, to the political structure of Northeast Asia and the Pacific Rim.

Even car thieves are now adjusting - there are more and more old Soviet and Russian-made sedans stolen on the streets than ever before. According to official statistic, the total number of auto thefts has dropped by 20 percent. Because of the crisis, the criminals are now preferring domestic "Lada," produced by the Zhiguli car company, as the most popular brand (23% of all car theft), followed by Toyota, Honda, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz and Audi. This year, more than twice as many older Russian cars were stolen in Moscow - 507 in all - than Toyotas (193 cars) or Hondas (179 cars). As the sign of the times, criminals stopped stealing super-luxury Maybachs and Bentleys, which in 2007 were stolen every month - because of the crisis, it's almost impossible to find a buyer willing to pay money for such expensive cars.

The Other Russia has posted some translations of reactions to the parole of Yukos lawyer and mother of three Svetlana Bakhmina, including commentary from Lev Ponomarev, Valentina Melnikova, and  Grigory Chkhartishvili (Boris Akunin).  Below is what Viktor Shenderovich had to say:

Thank God that this happened.  But then comes the question - what are we measuring against?  If we measure against the norms of a civilized European country, then this happened with terrible red tape, after torturous efforts from the public, with a great deafness on the part of authorities, and so forth.  If we measure against Uzbekistan or something along those lines, or even the recent unipolar-Putinist times, when absolutely no one was pardoned and no one was released... then this can be seen as progress.  The glass is either half full or half empty.  I, perhaps, will consider it half full.  It's better this way.

But analysts and opposition politicians cautioned that the steps looked like little more than gestures and said they were likely agreed first with Mr Putin, who has retained power as prime minister. "It is too early to speak of a change in policy," said Vladimir Ryzhkov, a former independent MP.

"The release of Ms Bakhmina does not make Medvedev a new Gorbachev," said Lilia Shevtsova, a senior associate at Moscow's Carnegie Centre, adding that the Soviet Union's last leader had already freed the media under glasnost and released political prisoner Andrei Sakharov by the end of his first year in power. "What we have are just gestures are an attempt by the regime to find a softer more flexible form of preserving power."

"The regime is like a chameleon. It sheds its skin or changes its hat. But we have not seen a thaw."

Ms Shevtsova said the economic crisis looked to be forcing the Russian elite to soften the hardline it had taken towards the west and to the opposition under Mr Putin's rule when soaring oil prices had helped fill Russian coffers. But she added key tests for real change would come in the new trial against Mr Khodorkovsky, which is currently being heard in Moscow, that could keep the fallen oligarch in jail for another 22 years, or whether Mr Medvedev allowed opposition politicians on state-controlled television.

One of the libraries of Vyborg (Leningrad oblast of Russia) has received a letter with an offer to place in its collection for open access the results of the environmental impact study for the overland portion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. In and of itself, the offer is not unusual: two years ago, this same company had already placed environmental impact study materials in the libraries of Vyborg. What was unusual this time around, however, was that the letter was accompanied by an offer to do this for money. In so doing, it was proposed that the sum for spreading this information be named by the libraries of the region themselves.

Although libraries are in great need of financing of their activity, at library No. X they refused to place the information sent by a certain ZAO "DIEM", and she refused to receive payment for such work, reporting to them that they do not knows anything about such an organization, its status, objectives and intentions, and that the very offer to familiarize the population with important environmental information WITH PAYMENT FOR THE WORK OF THE DISSEMINATORS of such information seems suspicious to them.

The new election of an outright Communist government was bound to stimulate discontent among Moldovan youth, who have never known the harsh realities of Slavic rule. But once again, in Eastern Europe the long-established historical paradigm defines reality. With apparent contempt for the flirtation with Moscow offered by the Obama administration, Putin and his gang are bent on firming up control over their former possessions and neighbors. A Communist regime in Moldova was merely a step, according to regional critics of Putin â s intentions, toward a long-expected assault on independent Ukraine. And it was probably no coincidence that the upheaval in Moldova paralleled Moscow's assertion that Chechnya has been pacified. Chechnya borders Georgia, and many observers believe that Putin is preparing another attack on the latter country, later this year, perhaps crossing the Chechen area. (...)

The Preobrazhensky District Court granted parole to Bakhmina, who was serving a 6 1/2-year term being convicted in April 2006 on charges of embezzlement and tax evasion.
 
She is one of several senior Yukos officials to be jailed since the company came under fire in 2003. Her bid to be released has become a cause celebre among prominent liberals and has even been backed by Kremlin supporters.

Several members of the Public Chamber have called for her release, as has former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.

The news is already being reported by AFP, the AP, and the BBC.  Below is his full statement to the court, as well as some of the slides he presented which show that the charges brought by the prosecutors fail to demonstrate any criminal act.  Read more about today's events in court at khodorkovskycenter.com.

STATEMENT
(in relation to guilt under the charges that have been brought)

I will formulate how I have understood them after all the indistinct explanations. If I make a mistake, - I ask the court to correct it.

This one comes from Lex over at FT.com ... also see recent commentary on Russia's debt problems from Yulia Latynina.

Russian banks do not have the same US subprime-related toxic assets that laid low US and west European counterparts and did not ape the huge foreign currency lending of central European banks. Since credit demand in Russia, unlike in the west, exceeded supply even during the credit boom, banks could also be choosy in lending. NPLs could nonetheless rise to 10-20 per cent of credit portfolios, ministers and bank executives warn. Forecasting is complex because it is unclear how big the problem already is. Overdue loans have doubled in recent months to about 3 per cent, according to figures from Russia's central bank. But these count only overdue interest and the overdue portion of loan principal; under international definitions, NPLs may be three or four times higher. Alfa Bank, Russia's number two privately owned bank, warned last week that its overdue loans were nearing 10 per cent and provisions might wipe out this year's profits; its president has said sector-wide NPLs could reach 20 per cent.

"The report is quite critical, but I disagree with the conclusions," said prominent independent rights activist Lev Ponomarev, who was severely beaten in late March in an attack his colleagues described as politically motivated. "Russia is drifting away from democracy."

Ponomarev said Lukin's report failed to mention political prisoners, including oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. That case is seen by critics as part of a Kremlin push to punish Khodorkovsky for challenging then-President Vladimir Putin and to strengthen the state's grip on energy resources.

Lukin lamented the "underestimation" of human rights abuses by the Russian public and officials, and praised President Dmitry Medvedev for his efforts to improve the situation.

As long as Russian bureaucrats (and competitors) are free to terrorize businesses by creating "administrative barriers," extorting bribes and raiding, economic growth in the real sector will always be insignificant. To his credit, President Dmitry Medvedev is backing a new law to assist small businesses, which will, among other things, limit the number of government inspections of businesses. Most likely, however, these limitations will be easily sidestepped when bureaucrats simply extort a larger amount of money per inspection.

#4. After China and the United States, which country emits the most carbon dioxide?
a) Brazil
b) India
c) Russia

With the two men now so at odds that they are not speaking, their mutual dislike has in some ways come to define the current state of ties between Russia and Georgia. Mr. Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, has unabashedly told the Russian people that he would like Mr. Saakashvili hung by his private parts. Mr. Saakashvili is said to have mocked Mr. Putin as "Lilli-Putin," a reference to his height.

"They hate each other," said Zurab Abashidze, a former Georgian ambassador to Moscow. "I heard, many times, very emotional statements from Saakashvili and from people around him about Putin. And unfortunately, this personal element in the political life of Russia as well as Georgia is still very important."

Leading Russian officials are loudly protesting the forthcoming NATO staff exercise in Georgia. The exercises do not involve any armed troops and are essentially a crisis management drill. Yet, as the Bard said, "the lady doth protest too much."

Since March 25, the Russian Federation has significantly increased its military presence in the occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow built up its forces, Georgia officials say, particularly in the areas adjacent to the troop separation lines in Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region. (...)

President Saakashvili stated in an interview on April 11 that Russia has 5,000 troops stationed in each of the breakaway regions. Saakashvili also went on to say that that despite the large-scale military build-up of the Russian forces both in the breakaway regions and on Georgia's borders, he did not think that Russia would "renew any large-scale military adventure." Instead, he believes these movements are aimed at "possible internal unrests [in Georgia]", i.e. aimed to destabilize his administration.

The NATO unarmed staff exercise in Georgia is the bare minimum the West can do to send a signal to Russia not to undertake another military adventure in Georgia. The question is, whether Moscow will listen - even as the Obama Administration is offering it an unclenched hand and a "reset" button.

The following is a statement we put out today on the Nasir El-Rufai case in Nigeria.

Nigeria's El-Rufai a Victim of Trial by Headline, Say Lawyers

Crass tactics of intimidation and slander against Nasir el-Rufai reveal political persecution by the State, argue defense lawyers

LONDON, April 17 -- Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the highly regarded former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Abuja, Nigeria, has been relentlessly targeted in recent weeks by state-controlled media with aggressive slander and false accusations, prompting his international defense team to denounce this "trial by headline."

Russia's main business - arms

Grigory Pasko, journalist

Not too long ago the magazine Kommersant-Vlast published a detailed article about the volumes or Russian arms export in the years 2004-2008.  According to the data of the publication, in the year 2008, the volume of shipments attained yet another record number -- $8.35 bln, having exceeded the result of the previous year by about $700 mln. The economic crisis and the absence of new contracts could make this indicator unattainable for the Russian arms-industry complex (AIC) in the next few years.

The publication notes that the main transformations in the structure of military-technical cooperation ended last year. The integrational idea of "Rostekhnologii" director-general Sergey Chemezov about the creation of a single military-industrial corporation on the basis of "Rosoboronexport" and its industrial assets has received factual formalization. Currently in the corporation "Rossiyskie tekhnologii" are numbered 180 unitary enterprises and state stakes in 249 joint-stock companies. Among the largest assets -- subsidiary companies of "Rosoboronexport" such as "VSMPO-Avisma", AvtoVAZ, KamAZ, "Russpetzstal", "Oboronprom".

The servile Kremlin pool

Grigory Pasko, journalist

The obsequiousness with which the journalists who are in proximity to the first persons - those who are part of the so-called Kremlin pool - write down everything the first persons say just melts my heart. Just take a look at this spectacle. Sycophantic toadies would weep with envy. Slaves would wipe away tears of joy. To write down all the drivel that these same first persons spew out more often than not with such speed and with such rapture is something only very faithful and devoted journalists could do. But then... Are they really journalists?...

Some analysts say Moscow's decision to remove federal oversight illustrates a method of dealing with insurgency that is practical and paradoxical -- giving power to former rebels in return for rhetorical loyalty.

"It's a gentlemen's agreement," says Sergei Arutyunov, a Chechnya expert at Russia's Academy of Sciences. "The Kremlin gives Kadyrov a free hand in return for 100% verbal support and peace." (...)

Russia's economic slowdown has shredded the net worth of its richest people by more than 70 percent in the last year and slashed membership of its billionaires club by two thirds. (...)

"The crisis has affected everyone: financiers and developers, metallurgists and oil men, consumer goods producers and sellers and the owners of diversified holdings," Forbes said in an editorial accompanying the list.

"Not a single entrepreneur is in a better position than a year ago." (...)

Hardest hit has been Oleg Deripaska, whose $25.1 billion loss was equivalent to about a quarter of the cumulative losses of Russia's 10 richest men. The aluminium tycoon dropped to 10th on the Forbes list after topping last year's rankings.

The hearing resumed at 14:40. Konstantin Rivkin informed Judge Danilkin that he forgot to turn on the live feed into the press room. This is not the first time it had happened, and some members of the press, unable to enter the courtroom once the hearing resumed, have sent text messages to defense attorneys, informing them of what happened.

As before, Mr. Lakhtin continued to have difficulties with reading various foreign firm names, and several times had to take extended pauses, while Mr. Shokhin was feeding him the names letter by letter. At last, Mr. Lakhtin finished the last page of Mr. Lebedev's indictment at about 15:35. Judge Danilkin asked Mr. Lakhtin if he was finished, and, after receiving an affirmative answer, adjourned the proceeding until Monday, April 20th.

On April 11, 2002, a loose group of labor and business leaders attempted a coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. The coup, which lasted only 47 hours, resulted in some 20 deaths, a two-day vacuum of power, and a moral hangover that is still being felt today.

In fact, if it were up to Chávez, Venezuelans would never stop feeling it. Scarcely a week goes by without the president making some reference to the events. On the seventh anniversary this past weekend, he proclaimed, "There is nothing similar in 100 years of history of this planet to what happened here in Venezuela on April 13th, 2002," referring to the countercoup by loyalist officers that brought him back to the Miraflores Palace as the beginning of "the socialist and anti-imperialist revolution in Venezuela."

Alfa Bank is having a rough Thursday. CEO Rushan Khvesyuk gave a press conference in which he announced that the bank expects no profits for 2009: "We will channel a maximum of our profits to create provisions ... We are urging everyone to work based on the most pessimistic, most conservative scenario ... The most conservative scenario is a zero net profit for this year."

Perhaps with some anticipation of this news, another Alfa Bank executive published an op/ed in the Moscow Times today about the proliferation of non-performing debt, and the danger of Russia's experience with it. The upside? Bank consolidation might be coming along, so if Mikhail Fridman is able to get enough money out of the state kitty, we can expect Alfa to begin swallowing up a long chain of smaller banks at bargain basement prices.

Of course all of that will depend upon whether or not Alfa can survive the "shares for loans" bailout plan, which could pass control of the bank into Sechin Incorporated.  Yulia Latynina may have been right when she wrote about Russia's debt bartering system yesterday - it's a survival tactic.

Recent political struggles in Eastern Europe remind me of the excellent novel by O. Henry "Cabbages and Kings." In this work, regimes change and governments are overthrown (or they desperately cling to authority). But in the end, absolutely nothing changes.

No matter who wins, life continues according to the same old rules -- government officials continue to steal, the business community cheats both workers, and the state and politicians lie. Now even those who respond to calls by the opposition to take to the streets know in their hearts that this is true. But their dislike of the corrupt officials in power outweighs their distrust of the demagogues among the opposition forces. And if new leaders eventually do come to power, the same scenario can be repeated by just changing the names and places of the characters.

The current crises in Moldova and Georgia mirror previous events in other countries. Storming parliament, smashing windows and destroying furniture has become a familiar scene played over and over again in the former Soviet republics. The difference between current events and those in South America in the late 19th century is that most of today's revolutions and uprisings are bloodless -- at least for now.

Although fighting in Chechnya is now limited to occasional small clashes, violence believed to be a spinoff of the Chechen separatist movement is strong in Dagestan and in Ingushetia, which borders Chechnya to the west.

Reducing the troop presence in Chechnya could allow for soldiers to be redeployed in those increasingly troubled republics.

Ten years in, no one is under any illusion that the problems in Chechnya have been solved (if anything, the high profile assassinations seem to be on the upswing, even extending beyond the borders of Russia).  Perhaps now that the Russian troops are pulling out, the mini-dictator Ramzan Kadyrov can pursue his lofty agenda of legalizing polygamy and the beatification of Vladimir Putin. 

Mr Medvedev seems content with his subordinate role. However, while he has has been seeking to step out from under Mr Putin's shadow and assert his independent political identity, he has not sought to challenge Mr Putin, at least openly.

While he frequently criticises the work of the cabinet headed by Mr Putin, this does not appear to bother the prime minister. Likewise, pronouncements by Mr Putin on foreign policy, which is nominally Mr Medvedev's domain, do not seem to faze the president.

Oleg Deripaska is a perfect example. He has about $30 billion in debts, but he is not about to part willingly with a single asset. His whole strategy consists of dragging out negotiations in the hope that the dollar drops in value, making his dollar-dominated debts more affordable.

The overall volume of Russia's assets has shrunk, even while its debt obligations remain unchanged. The only way of "solving" the disproportion of debts to assets is barter, and this means that even well-managed companies won't be able to operate normally.

Mikhail Gorbachev came to Washington last month as part of a tour inspired by the promise of a thaw in U.S.-Russian relations. The former General Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party and first Soviet President met with American academics and officials, including President Obama and Vice President Biden. Throughout his trip, he argued that the United States and Russia share three fundamental goals, all of which will be impossible to achieve without working as equal partners: controlling nuclear weapons, dealing with Islamic extremism, and cooperating on environmental issues. But finding common ground from which to negotiate won't be easy.

Washington and Moscow will not agree on all the details, but Russian cooperation is indispensable on all three issues. The two countries have a long tradition of arms negotiations. Moscow has leverage over countries where the U.S. has lost credibility. And the Siberian forests, together with Brazil's rainforest, constitute the planet's second lung. The Obama administration has offered the Russians an open hand and Mr. Medvedev has reciprocated the kind gesture. Now begins the hard business of finding points of contact. (...)

Is the US Russia? The question seems provocative, if not outrageous. Yet the person asking it is Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In an article in the May issue of the Atlantic Monthly, Prof Johnson compares the hold of the "financial oligarchy" over US policy with that of business elites in emerging countries. Do such comparisons make sense? The answer is Yes, but only up to a point.

"In its depth and suddenness," argues Prof Johnson, "the US economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets." The similarity is evident: large inflows of foreign capital; torrid credit growth; excessive leverage; bubbles in asset prices, particularly property; and, finally, asset-price collapses and financial catastrophe.

The latest variant for fitting out Russia

Grigory Pasko, journalist

Grigory Yavlinsky appeared on 21 March at a conference of ecologists in the settlement of Dubrovsky outside Moscow. Here are quotes from his speech.

"...The freeloaders have become partners. Grab. Hold. Live for today. Stretch yourself out. Take everything from life. These are the slogans of the freeloaders. Pyramids have been known since the 17 century."

"I asked bankers who got burned on the default in the year 1998 in Russia: why didn't you foresee? Answer: when you're getting 300% profit - the head doesn't comprehend.
Stagflation - rising prices and falling incomes. Inflation and a drop in production."

Even as Medvedev flew to London to meet with President Obama for the first time this month, Russian authorities hauled onetime oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky from his jail cell to put him on trial again for what his lawyers call essentially the same charges. Many saw the move as a warning to anyone else who might get out of line like he once did -- and a sign that Moscow could not care less about protests from Khodorkovsky's friends in the West. And at the same time, Medvedev has done nothing evident to rein in Kremlin-backed Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, whose enemies keep getting killed even as far away as Vienna and Dubai.

So Medvedev is no Gorbachev. At least not yet and maybe never. What Mann's book reminds us is how little we understand about what really goes on inside the Russian leadership. Russian leaders, after all, are acting not as we want them to but out of what they see as Russia's interests. Gorbachev believed it was in the Soviet Union's interest to open up a closed system and put an end to the arms race. Reagan recognized that and collaborated with him. After a decade of instability, Putin saw consolidating power both at home and in Russia's immediate neighborhood being in Russia's interest.

"All this crossfire shows what I really stand for is our own national interest," she says. Then she is quick to add: "The Russians worry that we are trying to privatize our pipelines by stealth, but that's not the case and would be illegal. We have to reassure them on that."

Tymoshenko returns frequently to the challenges presented by Ukraine's position between Russia and the European Union. "There is no doubt we want to join the EU. At least 60 percent of our public opinion favors this option, and we are now closer to this goal than, say, one year ago. This policy must be the essence of all our actions," she says. But, she warns, it cannot succeed by confronting Moscow or ignoring its concerns.

You would think that given this increasingly complex domestic situation, Russia's rulers would not have the time or money to continue the aggressive foreign policies which they have pursued in recent years - those which culminated in August 2008 with the war against Georgia.

But let us not fool ourselves. There are two reasons why the crisis is strengthening, not weakening Russia's desire to continue on its way with its decided foreign policy course.

"It will take us several years to get out of this crisis," Mr. Kudrin said during a finance ministry board meeting.

He added that the government's forecast for a 2.2% contraction in gross domestic product this year already seems "optimistic." Russia's government issued the forecast for this year, but international organizations predict the country's economy will contract by between 4.5% and 5.6% in GDP terms in 2009.

This year's deficit will be Russia's first since 1999, when the country was emerging from the devastation caused by the 1998 financial crisis and Russia's default on its debt. The government expects the deficit to narrow next year to 5% of GDP and to 3% in 2011, but the amount that Russia will need to borrow will double by then to 857 billion rubles ($25.74 billion).

Gogol once wrote that he could never decide whether his soul was Russian or Ukrainian. In an era when Ukrainian aspirations for nationhood were dormant, he did not see the two as contradictory; for him, Ukraine and Russia were inseparable parts of a greater whole. Unsurprisingly, many Russian politicians and pundits have seized on this theme, making the bicentennial an occasion to affirm Russian-Ukrainian unity -- and snipe at Ukrainians who are less than fond of the idea. Lyubov Slizka, Russian parliament speaker and deputy chairwoman of the ruling United Russia party, has dismissed Ukraine's attempts to claim Gogol's legacy as "petty squabbles" that, she warns, are "dangerous to both Russian and Ukrainian citizens." (...)

I can see why some of Gogol's characters are especially appealing for film adaptation in today's Russia - especially if they can challenge Ukrainian sovereignty (which is also helpful in securing funding from from the government - not the first film they have made).  The latest blockbuster is another high budget remake of the classic Taras Bulba - an openly nationalist film of grand, imperial sweep - just what Russia needs. From The New York Times:

Taras Bulba, the 15th-century Cossack immortalized in Nikolai Gogol's novel by that name, disdains peace talks as "womanish" and awes his men with speeches about the Russian soul. When Polish soldiers finally burn him at the stake, he roars out his faith in the Russian czar even as flames lick at his mustache.

A lush $20 million film adaptation of the book was rolled out at a jam-packed premiere in Moscow on April 1, complete with rows of faux Cossacks on horseback. Vladimir V. Bortko's movie, financed in part by the Russian Ministry of Culture, is a work of sword-rattling patriotism that moved some viewers in Moscow to tears.

Some thoughts on the trial

Grigory Pasko, journalist

At the trial in the case of the theft of all the oil in Russia, they are reading the text of the bill of indictment - 14 volumes of 300 pages apiece. I'm familiar with this: both with the crazy quantity of volumes of the charge, and with the standard selection of pages per volume. And also with that drivel the investigators usually write when they don't have evidence or don't have enough of it...

The first thing that jumps out at you in this charge - the vagueness of the formulations. By the way, both the lawyers for Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, and the defendants themselves, have already spoken about this numerous times. They have spoken justly, because that is what the law demands. According to the Code of Criminal Procedure, a charge - this is an assertion about the commission by a specific person of an act prohibited by law. If the person is not established (indicated is a supposedly organized criminal group, under which the prosecution has in mind just about 15 thousand employees of the company YUKOS), then what concreteness can be spoken of?.

By bringing Russia into its circle of foreign UAV clients, Israel hoped to bury any ill-will over the Georgian conflict and win scope to apply pressure over Iran, the industry source said.

"What was our alternative, to say no to the Russian request for our drones? The thinking was: let's go ahead and sell, and then try to gain sympathy on the S-300 issue," the source said.

According to the report "Tensions grow over Moldova clashes" (April 9), "most Moldovans speak Moldovan, a language closely linked to Romanian, but a big minority speak Russian and other Slav languages". Moldovan is, in fact, Romanian.

Even if the current global slump comes to an end by early 2010, growth will remain sluggish and fragile. Demand will remain weak everywhere, and the global economy will not be able to absorb renewed oil price increases.

A similar situation occurred in 1979. When the Iranian revolution pushed up oil prices, the global economy was already stagnating. Oil became the last straw that plunged the world into a deep recession, accompanied by defaults from international debtors.

The same is likely to happen this time. Even if oil supplies do not expand in the coming years, OPEC and other oil producers will find it difficult to raise prices. Of course, oil prices may still spike suddenly because of a sudden political jolt or military conflict. But higher oil prices will then trigger a contraction in global economic activity and a renewed decline in oil prices. It should be recalled that in the early 1980s, the recession ushered in a long period of declining oil prices, culminating in $10-per-barrel oil by the end of the 1990s.

In other news, we would like to wish Mr. Kasparov, who turns 46 today, a very happy birthday.  Congratulations, Garry.