Not a bad observation from Stratfor about the use of the Iskanders in Kaliningrad as a fake bargaining chip - and an excuse to reject Obama's missile overture:Remember Cold War propaganda? It was certainly on parade in Spain, not just in the shaping of a press conference where the quid pro quo comments garnered such attention, but in a phalanx of "deals" that the Russian delegation signed. (...)
Not to be outdone, the Russian state press had its own response to the New York Times leak on the quid pro quo of BMD for Iran. Editorials expounded that there was no deal to be had because the Russians had already suspended their plans to deploy nuclear-tipped Iskander missiles to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Since the Russians had unilaterally declared this, there was no need for BMD.
This issue is primarily one of fine print. While the Iskanders have been tested, there is no evidence that any have actually been deployed -- to Kaliningrad or elsewhere -- and even less evidence that the Russians have figured out how to mate a nuclear warhead to the missiles. Put simply, the Russian "concession" sounds great to the untrained ear -- no nukes in Europe -- but the Iskanders are not yet a reality, let alone a bargaining chip.
Propaganda and disinformation are as much part of Russia's negotiating package as its nuclear capabilities and Latin American populist movements. Russia never really abandoned the tool, but we haven't seen such aggressive message-planting for quite some time. Then again, the stakes haven't been this high in a while.
This is an interesting situation since the countries surrounding Russia could easily be affected by a missile removal. Likewise, Russia is certainly not deeply concerned with our Iranian relations. Personally, I think this situation is a serious one and should involve some very real discussion.
http://www.newsy.com/videos/u_s_russia_trade_off/