Writing in The Moscow Times, Nikolay Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Center suggests that United Russia wasn't as successful in this week's regional elections as commonly believed.
"United Russia leaders tout the fact that the party won in all nine regional parliaments, even under difficult economic conditions. Their opponents point out that not only did United Russia fare worse in every region than it did during the 2007 State Duma elections, but it also lost badly wherever the slightest hint of competition existed.
"The party's losses in the eyes of the public are probably of less significance than its loss of status among the regional political elites. United Russia's greatest setbacks occurred not only in major cities with their large -- and less-controllable -- voter populations, but also among the Caucasus republics. United Russia on average lost about 10 percent of its usual voter base, but in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachayevo-Cherkessia the losses stood at 25 percent. That signals the end of United Russia's monopoly among the administrative elite in the regions.
The picture turns out to be more interesting and varied on the
municipal level. That is where candidates' personal influence plays an
even greater role, and the state's rigid control of the political
machine is less apparent. United Russia claimed victories in
Novosibirsk, Chelyabinsk, Chita, Birobidzhan and Blagoveshchensk, where
the incumbent mayors were re-elected by wide margins. In cities where a
runoff election is required -- Smolensk, Murmansk,
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Tomsk -- United Russia's incumbent mayors
either already lost in the first round on Sunday or stand a good chance
of losing once the opposition voters consolidate their support for a
single candidate in the second round. In Tver, the Communist Party
walked way with a clear victory, bringing in twice the number of votes
as United Russia in the city's legislature. United Russia failed to
achieve 40 percent representation in the city legislatures in Bryansk,
Ulan-Ude and Tolyatti. In Tolyatti, second place went to the opposition
movement December that includes representation from Yabloko and Right
Cause.
Not only the participating parties but the entire electoral system passed the test of whether it could function under crisis conditions. Although the country is still very much struggling with overcoming the economic crisis, it has entered a new phase of political activity.
United Russia's weakness, which was clearly demonstrated during Sunday's elections, will only increase with time. Here the hard numbers from the election results are of less importance than the growing political rivalry within the party, disagreements between the party's regional and federal leadership and the conflicts between United Russia and local political elites that surfaced even during the last elections two years ago. United Russia is gradually transforming from a monolithic bureaucracy under strict Kremlin control into something resembling a true political party. In just a short time, United Russia might lose its standing as the dominant party.
Not only the participating parties but the entire electoral system passed the test of whether it could function under crisis conditions. Although the country is still very much struggling with overcoming the economic crisis, it has entered a new phase of political activity.
United Russia's weakness, which was clearly demonstrated during Sunday's elections, will only increase with time. Here the hard numbers from the election results are of less importance than the growing political rivalry within the party, disagreements between the party's regional and federal leadership and the conflicts between United Russia and local political elites that surfaced even during the last elections two years ago. United Russia is gradually transforming from a monolithic bureaucracy under strict Kremlin control into something resembling a true political party. In just a short time, United Russia might lose its standing as the dominant party.
