Had this been a purely commercial dispute, a compromise would surely have been struck. But as ever with Russia and its neighbours, there are second-layer political undercurrents. Little love has been lost between Ukraine and Russia ever since the "orange revolution" brought anti-Russians to power in Kiev four years ago. Recently, Russia has accused the Ukrainians of supplying arms to Georgia during the war in August and said it would take this into account when forming its policy. "A more serious crime than arms deliveries in a conflict zone cannot be imagined," Mr Putin told Yulia Tymoshenko, his Ukrainian counterpart, when the two discussed gas prices in October.
The third layer is the political rivalry within Ukraine between Ms Tymoshenko and the president, Viktor Yushchenko. What complicates matters is a controversial intermediary, RosUkrEnergo, which is part-owned by some Ukrainian businessmen and Gazprom. It was set up on Mr Yushchenko's watch and Ms Tymoshenko wants to scrap it. This may explain why, when Ms Tymoshenko was ready to fly to Moscow to conclude negotiations on December 31st, Mr Yushchenko stepped in to undermine her (in a different version, her trip was called off by Moscow).
Europe has long stood aside from Russia's fraught gas relationship with Ukraine. It now has no choice but to jump in. The main lesson from this crisis, says Gazprom, is that alternative pipelines bypassing Ukraine are needed. Ukraine retorts that further integration with the EU is the answer. But until Europe diversifies its sources of energy, it will remain hostage to Russia's rows with its neighbours.
And " Geo-politics " ( The influence of geography , climatology , ......on politics - It's the first meaning of this word ) ?
Nobody speaks that it's the " Arctic blast " on Europe , people were skiing in the streets of Marseilles in the south of France , that awake Europeans politicians !
Ukraine curtailed , as Russian TV showed it yesterday on " Vesti Nedeli " , gas shipments a few hours before the cold wave stroke Europe .
It's a real mismanagement of " Geo-politics " from Ukrainian political leaders like Saakachvili did in summer 2008 by attacking South-Ossetia when Roki tunel is not closed by the snow !
Now Russia will export it's gas to Europe and will not be obliged to burn it as Ukrianians hoped .
Thanks to Europe and " Genearl winter " !
" General Winter " seems to be always on the Russian side ...............
Hi: I enjoyed reading your blog. I have been following this politicization of the pipeline in the Russian crude oil sector for years. The paper, avaiable on my webstie,
http://www.pitt.edu/~dmberk/berksemJEG0607.pdf
documents the extent to which this politicization of teh "tube" in fact grew worse during the Putin years.
Comments would be appreciated.
Best,
Daniel Berkowitz
Co-editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics
Professor of Economics
University of Pittsburgh
Email: jce@pitt.edu
Webpage: http://www.pitt.edu/~dmberk/