Russia's Leaking Economy

From Yulia Latynina in the Moscow Times, a suggestion of a building scapegoat campaign:

In order to understand how the Russian economy was built, ask yourself one simple question: Is it possible to carry water in a colander? Yes -- if you are able to pour more water into the colander than the amount that leaks out of its holes.

For the past eight years, the Russian economy was like a huge colander. With oil prices above $100 per barrel, petrodollars flooded into the colander with amazing force. As long as oil prices remained high, it seemed as if the colander could actually hold water.

Unfortunately, the sharp drop in oil prices cut off the flow coming into the colander, and we discovered that it doesn't hold water after all.

There were other major leaks as well. Dollars have fled Russia at the rate of $3 billion to $7 billion per week. It is useless to try to stop this outflow because the dollars are being sent abroad by the very people who were the most active in drilling the holes in the colander in the first place.

There's nothing the government can do about the problem either. If it gives money to the banks, they'll just send it overseas. If it doesn't give them money, there will be a catastrophic liquidity crisis and the interbank interest rates will reach astronomical levels.

To make matters worse, the government's reserves are streaming out of the colander, but the Kremlin is only worried about choosing which oligarchs should get a slice of the bailout pie.

How can the Kremlin solve the problem of its leaking colander? Find a scapegoat. Who would be the best scapegoat? Russia's new, young president.

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That's what Yulia Latynina was suggesting in her column today.  Garry Kasparov also has a big interview with Reuters in which he (no surprise) not only predicts the rapid toppling of the regime within the next two years, but also... Read More

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