RBK Daily: Unpaid Wages Accumulating

A large part of the arrears (94.6%) is formed due to the absence of own funds at organizations. Arrears due to untimely receipt of money from budgets of all levels grew by 11.4%. In the overall volume of overdue indebtedness 38% comes to manufacturing and 12%a -- to agriculture.

The scale of the problem compared with the labor remuneration fund is for now not great: on average the delinquency comprises for now around 1% of it, however the tempos of growth of the debts are great. "Statistics smooth over the real situation: the problem began to become acute from the second half of October. Therefore it is fairer to say that not over a month did the arrears increase by more than a third, but over half a month", -- comments FBK partner Igor Nikolayev. Arrears for October, according to the data of statistics, in the overall volume of delinquent payments comprised 49% on average: in the construction industry -- 73%, in the sphere of culture -- 64%, on transport -- 50%, in agriculture -- 32%, health care -- 22%, education -- 21%.

"The growth of delays is connected with the non-payments of enterprises", -- comments leading expert of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting Igor Polyakov. Until October, the arrears were moderate, they were connected with the fact that certain enterprises were settling by barter. November, in his opinion, will demonstrate another 15--20-percent increase in arrears. In December the problem will not be as evident: at the end of the year traditionally the state budget settles with the commercial sector for services rendered.

The first quarter of the year 2009 will be complex for manufacturing, construction, export trade, agriculture, forecasts Mr. Polyakov. He is confident only in the solvency of the state sector: the budget in the year 2009 will have enough funds for timely settlements. "The tendency of growth of arrears has entrenched itself for the next few months, -- agrees Mr. Nikolayev. -- Further on everything will depend on how successful the government's anti-crisis measures turn out to be".

The most important of them have yet to be adopted: approved is just the plan for law-drafting activity. According to the plan, many measures with respect to state guarantees, imperative for overcoming the non-payments crisis, will be adopted no earlier than the spring of the year 2009.

Unlike the non-payments crisis of the 90s, an employee is now more insured from "free" work: there is a law in effect that establishes the administrative liability of the employer for a delay in wages. True, the fines envisaged by the law are not great: for non-payment in excess of two months they comprise up to 120 thsd. rub., if the non-payments have led to grave consequences -- up to 500 thsd.

An employer has not a few ploys in order to "lawfully" reduce his payments. For example, to deprive employees of an important component of wages -- bonuses, which often comprise more than 50% of the salary and are not spelled out in the labor contract, notes director for marketing and PR of the HeadHunter group of companies Olga Brukovskaya. Employees can also be sent on unpaid leave.

TATIANA FROLOVSKAYA
20.11.2008