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Ukraine as a Threat to the Corporate Authoritarian State

piontkovsky.JPGThis comes from an interesting Moscow Times column by Andrei Piontkovsky:

But Moscow's self-destructive confrontation with the West can be halted, and its centuries-old debate between Westernizers and the Slavophiles can be put to rest once and for all. This, however, will depend on Ukraine's success on the path of European development it chose in the Orange Revolution of 2004 and 2005.

Ukraine does present a threat, but not to Russia's security, as Kremlin propagandists claim. The real threat is to the Putin model of a corporate, authoritarian state, unfriendly to the West. For the Kremlin it is a matter of life and death that countries that were once part of the Soviet Union but chose a different model of development -- Ukraine being the chief example -- should never become attractive to ordinary Russians.

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Comments (2)

Wanderer [TypeKey Profile Page]:

No worries for the Kremlin here. A quick look at Ukraine's vital statistics shows that the death rate in Ukraine is just as high as in Russia, but with the Ukrainian birth rate stuck at a level where Russia's was in the aftermath of the 1998 economic collapse. Russia's per capita GDP is over twice Ukraine's in PPP terms, and the percentage of the population in poverty in Ukraine is more than twice that in Russia.

(All figures above courtesy of the World Factbook on the CIA's web page:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html#Econ

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html#Econ

Then compare the huge numbers of Rkrainian gastarbeiters in Russia, and the trivial numbers of Russians seeking work in Ukraine.

To sum up, I don't think the hard men in the Kremlin are terribly worried about Ukraine being an attractive model for the Russian population.

James [TypeKey Profile Page]:

Thanks for these stats - economically, I really wouldn't argue that ANY former Soviet state, much less the Ukraine, can compete with Russia.

However the paragraphs I extract from Piontkovsky's column may not be representative. I believe that it is the choice of Ukraine to lean toward Europe and integrate into the European system, rather than willingly lean toward Russia, as an expression of the failure of Russian soft power. That and the whole personal freedom, free-er press, and civil liberties.

You're right though - I think an individual can probably earn more money inside the Russian juggernaut, and the Kremlin likely isn't too worried about the Ukraine, yet still can't seem to leave it alone.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on July 3, 2008 4:43 PM.

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