Robert Amsterdam

TODAY: May Day rallies; government may waive visas for UK football fans; Russia-Georgia tensions continue, Nato alarmed; remains of Czar’s children identified. Kasparov a “nuisance”?

Russia is marking May Day with a number of rallies. United Russia is marching in Moscow together with trade union activists, and the Communists and the Other Russia movement will hold demonstrations against the government. High-level discussions are reportedly taking place within the Russian Government over scrapping visas for UK football fans who want to visit Russia for the Champions League, as “a gesture of goodwill at a time when political relations with Britain are at their worst since the end of the Cold War.” A letter published in the Wall Street Journal criticizes Garry Kasparov for his failure to “promote a social and economic model that combines freedom and governability,” and says that, if the Russian government would imprison Mikhail Khodorkovsky, “an entrepreneur who attempted to work out a feasible economic alternative to the country's archaic traditions”, but not Kasparov, it must see the latter as nothing more than “a nuisance”.

Russia is becoming the largest market for many luxury car brands, particularly Land Rover and Bentley, and some speculate that the country could overtake Germany as the biggest car market in Europe by 2010, in spite of its high import duties, currently levied at 50%. Turkey is planning to build its own long-range missile defense network by 2010 and may choose Russian-made S-300 air defense systems as its main component. Russian rail-freight carrier Globaltrans Investment intends to raise $450 million at its initial public offering in London. Mosenergo, the main supplier of power to Russia's capital, saw its net profits plummet tenfold in 2007. The head of Merrill Lynch’s Russian business has left the bank following a dispute over the way the operation was run.

Following talks between their leaderships, Russia has announced that it believes Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, and has pledged to complete the Bushehr power plant on schedule. Armenia is facing a power crisis as it is due to replace its only nuclear power station, which provides more than 40% of its electricity, by 2016. EU officials have expressed concern that the plant is located in an active earthquake zone. Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata has “effectively issued a call to rivals to ‘come and get us’.”

In what would appear to be good news for investors, UK newspaper The Guardian is reporting today that the use of a long-disputed legal clause has been forbidden by a top judge. The news, sourced from a story in Russian-language newspaper Vedomosti, casts President-elect Dmitry Medvedev in a positive light, as the judge in question is known to be one of his allies - the two were fellow law students at Leningrad University. Medvedev has spoken widely about the need to encourage domestic investment in Russia amid ongoing concerns about Russia’s investment climate.

The clause in question has reportedly been used in recent tax evasion cases against Bashneft, Russneft and PricewaterhouseCoopers to try and confiscate company-owned property.

On Russia Profile, foreign policy analyst Alexander Rahr argues for greater EU and Asian cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. He outlines the initial decision to centralize Russia’s natural gas industry and the development of Gazprom, and argues that it is Gazprom’s monopoly over state pipelines in particular that allows Russia to “retain the upper hand” in the energy sector.

He puts particular emphasis on the South Stream project, which Greece has just agreed to join, as a politically designed project to counter-balance opposition to the North Stream (or Baltic Sea) pipeline, currently coming from Poland and Scandinavia in the form of environmental concerns. “If Russian natural gas cannot come to the EU from the north, it will travel westward from the south.”

Rahr believes that an EU-Russia energy alliance could be a positive thing “only when the transit countries are also included in the joint strategy and no longer fear political pressure from Moscow.” But Rahr’s practical background to the issue suffers from the key question, which he himself asks: “what happens if there is a repeat of the Cold War between Russia and the EU?”

Read the full article here.

Robert Amsterdam was profiled in the new issue of Upstream magazine, an energy trade magazine, on how international energy companies can and should defend their rights in resource nationalist market conditions. Download the full PDF of the article here.

I was forwarded a link to an interesting article by Paul Goble at Windows on Russia, which comments on recent statements made by the leaders of the All-Russian Congress of the Unions of Lawyers. It's no secret that over the past six years, the Russian government has began to target the lawyers and partners of its perceived opponents - a successful Soviet-style method of creating a culture of fear, whereby the enemy of the state is left without any support. In the Yukos case, we've seen the medical blackmail (and possible manslaughter) of general counsel Vasily Alexanyan, the attempt to disbar Karinna Moskalenko, my forced exile from the country, as well as many other motley office raids and interference. We're of course not the only ones. Just ask Boris Kuznetsov, Serge Brovchenko, and Mikhail Trepashkin (photograph) about the cost of performing their normal legitimate duties as lawyers.

Goble reports the following comment from a conference participant: “Unfortunately,” one of them pointed out, the government has not done anything to halt this or to take the steps needed to prevent the creation of a situation in which “soon there will not be any independent lawyers” in Russia “and citizens will have no one to turn to for their defense when their rights are violated by government officials.

Read the full article here.

TODAY: May Day protests over inflation; Champion League football match to be held in Moscow, continues to dominate the press; Lavrov in London for Middle East Quarter; US congressman warn against anti-Russian positions; further peacekeeping troops in Abhkazia spark international criticism.

A number of protests were staged across Russia to mark May Day, with Moscow recorded as having demonstrations involving up to 30,000 people, and far eastern regions seeing crowds “protest[ing] against inflation and falling government social subsidies.” In Chelyabinsk, some 14,000 people marched under the slogan, "Let salaries rise higher than prices!"

US congressmen have warned against the “knee-jerk anti-Russian position” frequently adopted by the US. CIA chief Michael Hayden says Russia's population will decrease by 32 million - roughly a quarter - by 2050. The Middle East Quartet - Russia, the US, the UN and the EU - will meet in London to discuss Palestinian aid and the Iranian nuclear question.

A subsidiary of Lukoil has finalized the purchase of Europa-Mil, the owner of a chain of gas stations in Croatia. ExxonMobil’s $10.9 billion profit has “disappointed” investors. Eesti Gaas, an Estonian gas company run by Gazprom, has applied to raise prices for consumers by 41% between September and October. Authorities in Azerbaijan are demanding more documentation before they will release a consignment of Russian equipment destined for Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. United Company Rusal may be hindered in combining with Norilsk Nickel because of investor opposition and a possible Rusal share sale. Read a special report on Brazilian state-controlled oil company Petrobras. Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation, the Kazakhstan-based metals and mining group, has taken a first step outside the CIS with the acquisition of a 50% stake in Brazilian mining company Bahia Mineração Limitada, for $300 million.

The security of EU-Russia relations continues to be a hot topic. The most recent partnership and co-operation agreement (PCA), drawn up in 1997, is now outdated, and ministers are stumbling over how to proceed with securing a new one. The Economist today delves into the particularities of some recent difficulties involving Lithuania and Poland. The latter’s issues, now resolved, arose over Russia’s ban last year of Polish meat imports, but Lithuanian complaints focus more on human rights issues.

However, the article says, “none of this seems to bother the Russians much”, particularly in light of recent support and co-operations with Greece and Italy:

“In practice a new PCA is unlikely to make much difference. Despite the obsolescence of the old one, trade between Russia and the EU has more than tripled since 2000. In negotiating a new one, Russia would, on past form, use its bilateral ties with big countries to get its way in what ought to be multilateral negotiations. And it is not clear that any new agreement will stick. Russia has explicitly said that it will not ratify the energy charter it signed in 1994, which would have required it to give third parties access to its gas pipelines. As Katinka Barysch, of the London-based Centre for European Reform, notes drily, ‘the Russians have a somewhat different approach to law, so whether you can aim to solve all problems with a legal document is open to doubt’.”

Read the full article here.

(Image by Peter Schrank for The Economist)

Protests and celebrations were held all over the world yesterday to mark May Day. Russia saw a number of protests across the country, with numbers ranging from “more than two million” to “thousands”, with 30,000 recorded as having marched in Moscow alone. The largest demonstration reported was a 20,000-strong march organized by trade unionists and the United Russia party in Moscow, and one idyllic report says “thousands of trade union members held flowers and waved blue and white flags as they marched through the city centre under sunny skies."

Many people protested against soaring inflation, with prices in Russia having already risen by more than 6% this year. One report says worries about soaring prices are “overshadowing official calls for unity a week ahead of Vladimir Putin's departure from the Kremlin.” By all accounts, the anti-Kremlin march in St. Petersburg, joined by Garry Kasparov, was “rare”.

Despite many accounts of peaceful protests, there is clearly an undercurrent of more serious problems. Kasparov is quoted as saying, “The party of power is not ashamed that its members are millionaires. These are the millionaires who robbed the country.” And United Russia may have organized the largest demonstration, but today’s Washington Post today quotes a provincial Russian businessmen: "I had to get a United Russia membership card. It is now an entry ticket to official contacts and protects you from problems, exactly like the Communist Party card worked in the Soviet Union."

PHOTO: Participants of a Labour Day rally hold flags and balloons, Podolsk, 20 km. outside Moscow, Russia, 01 May 2008. More then 10.000 people participated in the Labour Day rally in Podolsk. EPA/YURI KOCHETKOV

News website redOrbit has published an interesting piece on an alleged row within United Russia over a proposed amendment to a libel law. The piece, a translation from the Gazprom-owned Russian-language newspaper Izvestiya, says that “a serious debate has flared up” within the party. One of the party’s alleged factions, the “November 4 group”, apparently believes that amendments to a law proposed by Robert Shlegel, the youngest State Duma deputy, “may harbour a threat of unsubstantiated and arbitrary sanctions against mass media.”

Read the full article here.

A very important opinion column by on Russia and the Khodorkovsky case by Eckhart von Klaeden, the foreign-affairs spokesman of the CDU-CSU faction in the German Parliament, from the International Herald Tribune.

The president and the prisoner

By Eckart von Klaeden

When Chancellor Angela Merkel traveled to Moscow in March to meet President Vladimir Putin and his successor, Dmitry Medvedev, who will be inaugurated next week, flowers for International Women's Day were not the only surprise she got. At their joint press conference, Putin suggested that Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oligarch imprisoned since 2003, could be released by Medvedev.

Merkel seized on this to underline how warmly the German government would welcome such a step.

TODAY: Medvedev to take power this week; visa restrictions to be simplified for UK football fans; harsh words traded over latest from Abkhazia; Russia’s super-rich teenagers.

Dmitry Medvedev will arrive at the Kremlin on Wednesday for “the final act in Russia's highly choreographed transition of power.” How will power be distributed between the offices of President and Prime Minister, and how long will it be before Vladimir Putin regains the presidential role? More on the anti-inflation May Day protests. Lake Baikal is in danger, as it is warming faster than the atmosphere.

The Sunday Times this weekend ran a large feature on the excesses of “the offspring of Russia’s super-rich”. Russian football team Zenit, funded by Gazprom, “symbolizes Russia’s transformation from communist backwater to capitalist head-hunter”. Authorities will take “unprecedented measures” to simplify visa procedures for English fans attending the Champions League football final in Moscow, which is reportedly bracing itself for violent outbursts following the match.

The world's biggest banks are advising their clients to load up on rubles, speculating that Dmitry Medvedev may allow a stronger currency after being sworn in as Russia's president. Gains of up to 4% are being predicted. Russia's nitrogen fertiliser producer Acron plans to raise $1 billion by placing up to 20% stake of its stock on the London Stock Exchange in July. Russia’s lingerie market “will probably expand at an annual 10% to 15% rate for the next few years”. Russia could improve production in the agriculture industry by attending to its fallow farmland. Lawyers claim that Oleg Deripaska owes former business partner Michael Cherney at least $3 billion after failing to honor an agreement concerning stakes in aluminum companies.

Russia’s emphasis on its booming commodities sectors could lead to an economic “dead end”, according to economy minister Elvira Nabiullina. With the state's share of oil production at 44% (up from 6% in 2000) and the gas industry almost entirely in Gazprom’s hands, Dmitry Medvedev could be inheriting some serious problems. Russia’s crude export tax will increase by 17% to a record high of almost $400 per ton on June 1. The government has warned a unit of TNK-BP that it might lose oil-production rights after "gross violations" of licensing terms were found during an inspection. The US still hopes to send a pact on civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia to the US Congress in the next month. Deals to develop Iraq’s prized oil fields are expected to be signed in June by the world’s largest oil companies. The European Commission has suspended its review of plans by Austrian oil and gas group OMV to take over Hungarian peer MOL.

Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда. Read this in Russian.

Nord Stream, Scandinavian Style

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts* - Part 1

Grigory Pasko, journalist

In one of my January articles on the subject of the construction of Nord Stream, I wrote: “the municipality of Slite, on the island of Gotland, has received financial “aid” from Nord Stream in an amount of 70 mln Swedish kronor [approximately $11 mln or €7.4 mln] for deepening its harbor. On top of that – 5 mln kronor for the needs of the local university and 3 mln – for the needs of the local museum. Many have regarded this as a blatant bribe by Nord Stream to the municipality, the opinion of which could influence the construction of a gas storage facility necessary for the needs of the future pipeline.”

Of course the opinion of the municipality of Gotland isn’t influential enough to impact the construction of the entire pipeline. But it could easily create a lot of uncomfortable noise and protest against the proposed construction, for example, of a service platform 90 km from the island’s shores.

A mighty fortress is our Gotland: Can Visby’s ancient city walls withstand the tempting gifts brought by Nord Stream? (photo by Grigory Pasko)

Here's an interesting note from Reuters, reminding us that the most frightening prospect to siloviki in the Kremlin is not the watered down political opposition, but rather old fashioned inflation. I wonder if Putin's brand of authoritarian capitalism is still viable when growth falls back below 5%...

Medvedev's biggest immediate problem could be that economic planners in the government and the Kremlin are at odds over how to respond to these challenges.

One camp inside the government, backed by Kremlin economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich and business lobbies, believes that the government should cut taxes to boost economic growth -- a move opposed by Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.

An aggressively negative article from McClatchy argues that Sen. John McCain's proposal to remove Russia from the G8 won't get very far in reality. OK, fine, but I'm not convinced of the wisdom behind the reasoning - there's no need to tip-toe around Russia for fear of returning to "Cold War" tensions - let's avoid that heap of memes.

The Group of Eight, or G-8, as it's popularly known, makes decisions by consensus, so no single nation can kick out another. Most experts say the six other countries — Great Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Japan and Canada — would never agree to toss Russia, given their close economic ties to their neighbor. A senior U.S. official who deals with Russia policy said that even Moscow would have to approve of its own ouster, given how the G-8 works.

"It's not even a theoretical discussion. It's an impossible discussion," said the senior official, who requested anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly. "It's just a dumb thing."

The following is exclusive English translation

Yevgeni Zhirnov, “The Most Staged Court in the World”, Kommersant VLAST, No. 14 [768], 14 April 2008, pp. 64-69.

With the assistance of the VAGRIUS publishing house «Vlast» presents a series of historical materials in the rubric ARCHIVE

The Most Staged Court in the World

The agitational process

Among the multitude of riddles left to us as an inheritance by the Soviet power, one of the most intriguing consists of in what manner the Bolsheviks managed to change the attitude of tens of millions of people towards the repressions being conducted by them. Right after the revolution, many members of the party, not to mention representatives of the former governing and propertied strata, the ancien-regime intelligentsia, the peasantry and unconscientious proletarians, were sincerely and vociferously outraged by the lawlessness going on in the chekist torture chambers. As well as by the verdicts of the tribunals, based not on laws, but on revolutionary legal consciousness.

Clifford Levy at the Times talks to some ordinary Russians about what they think of the new memorial unveiled in honor of former president Boris Yeltin:

Photo credit: James Hill for The New York Times

“It’s horrible, just horrible,” said Anastasia Kandaurova, 21, a paramedic.

TODAY: Putin changes journalist rules for the White House and increases Prime Minister’s deputies, denies that Victory Day parade is a threat; Russia and US to sign civilian nuclear cooperation pact; FSB clarifying definition of espionage.

Vladimir Putin has changed the rules for journalists in the White House in the run-up to assuming the role of Prime Minister. The building previously gave almost full access to the press, but will now be confined to a single press room. Asked what would happen if one of them strayed from this room, a Cabinet spokeswoman said, "You'd better not do that for your own safety. These are the rules that Putin is used to in the Kremlin." It is also thought that Putin will have 11 deputies to support him in the Prime Minister's role which usually only allows for 6.

Vladimir Putin has just signed a law allowing Russia to start restricting foreign investment in key sectors of the economy such as energy and aviation. Investors have complained that the law limits access to more than half of Russia's economy. The cabinet of Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov has approved a price increase for state monopolies that will almost double electricity, railway and natural gas prices between 2009 and 2011. French retailer Auchan is locked in a dispute over planning permission for its new mall in Moscow, causing it to suffer losses of $1.5 million a day in sales. The ruble rose for a second day against the dollar, rebounding from a two-month low. Food retailer X5 says investors bought almost all of a stock offering worth more than $1 billion. Globaltrans, the freight operator, will try to raise $449 million on the London market as part of a plan to rejuvenate Russia’s “sprawling and antiquated” railways. Evraz Group reportedly wants to acquire 20% of the stock in FerroChina for the current market price of $167 million. Russian Technologies may be seeking control of state properties in Moscow worth more than $150 million. Menora Mivtachim Holdings, an Israeli insurer, and GTC Real Estate will buy land in St. Petersburg worth $74.8 million. Real estate developer Mirax Group has bought a 19th-century townhouse in central London, and plans to turn it into “sumptuous accommodation for wealthy Russians.”

“Medvedev's shift from Gazprom chairman to Russia's president will be a key factor in rebranding Gazprom and Russia as a whole.” In a bid to increase its number of natural gas suppliers, Israel’s ministry is in discussions with a number of companies including Gazprom. A group of Goldman Sachs analysts says crude oil prices may rise to between $150 and $200 a barrel within two years because of a lack of adequate supply growth. Power generator OGK-5 posted a net profit of $83.96 million in 2007. The European Commission has ruled out the possibility of linking Russia up to the Nabucco gas pipeline. “Embattled” oil firm Russneft may see its back tax claims doubling to over $1.69 billion. Gazprom is laying ground work for the expansion of its Arctic exploration projects. The Economic Development and Trade Ministry will propose a delay in the government's plan to deregulate gas prices for industrial consumers. “Chinese engineers are coming to the rescue of the electricity sector”. It is looking increasingly likely that France’s EDF will be the first to bid for the nuclear generating company British Energy.

From the Wall Street Journal:

"Everybody loves this idea of a thaw," says Konstantin Remchukov, editor of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, one of Russia's few independent national newspapers.

Here's a news clip which begins with a story about the other Dmitry Medvedev, and concludes, like so many other news sources, that no one should expect any major shift in policy right away.

The oft-cited finance man Chris Weafer has an interesting, if not overly optimistic, opinion article in the Moscow Times about Gazprom under the next presidential administration.

Rebranding Gazprom

By Chris Weafer

The transfer of presidential power to Dmitry Medvedev will likely mark a turning point in how the world views Gazprom. For much of the last four years, Gazprom has been viewed with suspicion mixed with frustration as approval for projects to increase the country's energy exports were often delayed. The huge Shtockman gas field is perhaps the most vivid example, mired in delays of more than three years over thorny European Union-Russia trade issues such as Russia's stake in Airbus. The result is that until now, Gazprom, more than any other Russian publicly traded company, has been synonymous with the Kremlin. (This incidentally was taken to an absurd level when a heightened and emotional political standoff with Estonia about moving a monument to fallen Soviet World War II soldiers had a short-term negative impact on Gazprom's share price.)

It is an infrequently discussed and uncomfortable topic: Do Vladimir Putin's former Cold War colleagues in the East German Stasi benefit from their proximity to the outgoing Russian president in their new roles atop private enterprises? Is the future of German and European energy security completely in the hands of suspicious ex-spies?

The issue first surfaced from an investigative report from the Wall Street Journal several years ago, which found that the German banking executive, Matthias Warnig of Dresdner Kleinwort, had had a close relationship with Vladimir Putin during his KGB assignment to East Germany when he worked as an agent for the dreaded Stasi secret police. In more recent years, Warnig has guided the bank he heads up into a very close relationship with Gazprom, and has even taken up a post atop the board of the Nord Stream pipeline project - along with Putin's hired ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a man known for consistently being "on the wrong side of history." Warnig's Dresdner bank also assisted the Russian government in what we on the Yukos defense team would later refer to as a massive asset laundering operation, giving an artificially low valuation to the Yuganskneftegaz refining company before the illegal auction to a government owned company (Rosneft).

Now the Stasi connection to Gazprom is unraveling further and further. Today Reuters has picked up on a story from Die Welt about a new investigation being opened by Cologne prosecutors against Felix Strehober, a high placed executive of Gazprom Germania - the gas giant's subsidiary in Germany - into possible perjury regarding his past employment with the Stasi. Apparently Die Welt got hold of a long list of informal employees of the Stasi dating back to the 1970s and 1980s, which may also include a top manager of Gazprom Germania, Hans-Uve Kreher, according to one report.

More information is forthcoming on this breaking Stasi-Gazprom scandal, and we hope to soon offer some exclusive translations from the German press. Stay tuned.

The Financial Times has an opinion article up urging the West to seize the Medvedev moment and begin new discussions. They also call upon him to fulfill his promises to restore rule of law and release political prisoners such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky:

A lawyer, he has pledged to promote the rule of law. That promise should be welcome to the many Russians who suffer daily from abuses of power, including corruption and judicial malpractice. Not the least among them is Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the jailed oil baron, who was imprisoned on politically motivated fraud charges and now faces new allegations. Mr Medvedev must show that by upholding the rule of law he means to strengthen the rights of citizens and not simply to reinforce the rights of an over-mighty state, as Mr Putin has done.

One appears to be liberal leaning and pro-engagement, the other more hawkish and confrontational. Both men will be vying for influence over foreign policy in coming years, seeking to impose their different visions of international politics, and potentially transforming U.S.-Russia relations at a critical historical juncture.

No, actually I am not talking about Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin - I think you can find a surplus of profoundly unexciting articles in the papers today letting you know that Putin "is still in charge" and that Medvedev is likely to remain in his shadow. (Nevermind for the moment that I am a little too cynical to accept such a neat little presentation ... everyone thought Putin was a "puppet" at first too...)

The other two-headed beast is far from the Kremlin: Robert Kagan and Stephen Biegun, the ying and the yang of Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain's team of advisors on Russia policy. If McCain is able to win the election, which seems less and less impossible as the once superior Democratic candidates continue their tedious mutual destruction, then we will have to pay very close attention to which of these two policy men ends up winning over McCain's ear.

TODAY: Vladimir Putin’s last day as President; Other Russia dissent march cancelled; millions budgeted for road repairs following Medvedev’s inauguration parade; Gorbachev accuses US of pushing for new Cold War; Rogozin threatens bloodshed over Abkhazia.

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s NATO envoy, has contributed to mounting tensions over Georgia, warning that interference in Abkhazia could result in “"serious bloodshed”, and saying that Georgia is “really extremely close to a war.” Mikhail Gorbachev has accused the United States of mounting an imperialist conspiracy against Russia that could push the world into a new Cold War. Putin “is said to consult Mr Gorbachev on foreign policy matters.” Viktor Zubkov has stepped down as "placeholder” Prime Minister. One Russian newspaper reviews his 237-day appointment.

Which is it? One Central Bank deputy says policy makers may allow the ruble to appreciate against the dollar and euro to help curb inflation, while another has criticized commercial banks for anticipating a currency revaluation. Russia’s three top cellphone companies — VimpelCom, Mobile TeleSystems and Megaphone — are generating excess cash that they cannot invest in their saturated domestic market, sparking speculation that one of them could make a bid for South Africa’s MTN Group. Meat processing firm Cherkizovo raised $82.25 million in a local offering of new shares. United Airlines will start nonstop passenger and cargo flights to Moscow from Washington D.C. to profit from “exponential” growth in commerce and tourism in Russia. The freeze on the Russian central bank's French assets, first set into place as part of a suit by Swiss trading firm Noga, has been lifted. Energomash, the rocket engine manufacturer, is planning to double the number of engines produced for Atlas and Zenit launch vehicles. Russian Railways workers are threatening further strikes if their salaries are not doubled. AvtoVAZ and partner Renault are lobbying the government to eliminate tariffs on imported car parts.

The President of the Russian Gas Union has defended the government’s decision to raise consumer prices by 40%. Russian refined products exports fell in April following an increase in export duties and maintenance work. Exxon Mobil and Falcon Oil & Gas may ship Hungarian natural gas to western Europe to boost supplies in a region “increasingly concerned that Russia may reduce exports.” The head of Rosatom, the state nuclear corporation, says that the new US-Russia civilian nuclear cooperation will help "to eliminate the legacy of the Cold War." A Moscow arbitration court upheld a lower court's ruling to refund TNK-BP the $408 million it paid as value-added tax in 2006. BP plans to invest $8 billion over the next five years in developing alternative energy technologies around the world. Indonesia is considering withdrawing from OPEC because it is no longer a net exporter of oil.