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What Will Super Tuesday Mean for Russia?

hillaryobama020508.jpgToday is very important day in U.S. politics, which could prove to be definitive in shaping the foreign policies of the next presidency. You can be sure that the Russia is watching very closely - as it is arguably a much more interesting campaign season to observe that the local performance.

Most agree there is a lack of clarity on the candidates' Russia views. A few weeks ago, Robert Amsterdam published an opinion article in the Washington Times about the U.S. elections and Russia which argued that "So far, this wide field of candidates remarkably has been disappointing and unspecific on Russia policy with advisors cautioning to speak only about foreign policy issues like Iraq and Iran. But while we're asleep at the wheel, Russia quietly is becoming more volatile, especially in terms of the global security and economic stability."

But is it really possible to predict how these candidates will handle Russia?

We really only have a few kernels of commentary to work from. Today Siberian Light is featuring a great post collecting a number of Russia-related quotes from the candidates. We're all pretty well aware of Sen. John McCain's general tough talk on Russia (as well as his relationship with Oleg Deripaska), but it is Sen. Hillary Clinton that seems to be the biggest enigma on how she would handle Russia. Andy writes that Clinton "seems to have pretty much given up on the idea of promoting democracy in Russia" while the young Barack Obama, who is most frequently attacked for lack of experience, "is dull, and manages to slightly contradict himself."

For what Barack Obama may lack in experience, he has quietly recruited a heavy hitter on Russia policy as an advisor - none other than the Cold War titan Zbigniew Brzezinski. Last summer when President Bush invited Putin to the useless "Lobster Summit" at Kennebunkport after months of acrimonious exchanges, Brzezinski said "I think there must have been peals of delirious laughter echoing around the ornate chambers of the Kremlin when the invitation to go to Kennebunkport arrived. Putin has been spitting at the United States for the last year, and what is the reaction? An invitation to a family gathering." Barring radical changes, I suppose we can assume that Brzezinski wouldn't bring the Russian president home for the holidays any time soon.

However, the question no one seems to be asking is which candidate or which party the Kremlin would rather see in power. While the siloviki have enjoyed an eight year vacation from oversight under the incompetent Bush presidency, this doesn't necessarily mean that Moscow would prefer another Republican candidate. But Boris Gryzlov did once tell the Washington Post that "there are fears that the Democrats are more prone to apply double standards in human rights," which is another way of saying that the Republicans have shown a pattern of overlooking internal political issues in exchange for cooperation on business and security.

I tend to agree with Bob's long-held view: partisanship only distorts the Russia policy debate.

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Comments (9)

Didn't the Soviets always say that they preferred Republicans to Democrats because, while they disagreed more with the Republicans, at least they were predictable...

James [TypeKey Profile Page]:

Yes, I think that's right.

I would also note that you can find Russia's most passionate defenders at the end of both the right and left wing spectrums - today's issues with the relationship really challenge any ideology.

There seems to be no road map here for either country, but I tend to think that at least an increased interest in Russia would be a good thing.

It's a mischaracterization of Senator McCain's Russia policy to call it "general" or in any way mysterious. To the contrary, he is the ONLY candidate in the field who has gone on record with a specific policy response to Russia's de-democratization, namely booting Russia out of the G-8. If anyone asked him, he'd offer lots more great ideas; however, Russia seems to be largely off the radar, something for which the MSM ought to be called to account.

I fail to see how Obama is any less of an enigma on Russia because he is consulting Brzezinski. You certainly don't refer to any specific policy suggestions of Brzezinski dealing with Russia, much less has Obama articulated any. Moreover, I challenge you to support your claim that Brzezinski is a "heavy hitter" on Russia. He may have a diplomatic background, but I'm not aware that he has written or done anything that is in any way significant in terms of responding to the neo-Soviet Union. More's the pity.

It's perfectly clear that the Kremlin is terrified of McCain and that neither Obama nor Clinton have the slightest personal knowledge of Russia and neither has devoted any attention to them prior to the presidential race. McCain has been directly involved in high-level foreign policy decisions for many years; neither Obama or Clinton have a single day's worth of official experience in that regard.

James [TypeKey Profile Page]:

Fair enough, it is certainly indisputable that McCain has the most foreign policy experience, hands down. Then again, Rumsfeld and Cheney had plenty experience also.

Brzezinski's record on Russia? Born in Poland, he has written prolifically about the country since 1950, and was responsible for accords such as SALT-II, while also being one of the first to predict the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Here is one essay from last summer:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1630544-1,00.html

I am aware McCain has spoken out about Russia with more courage and conviction than all the other candidates combined. However, it would still be great to see some of these ideas and proposals for implementation debated before the elections - given that the United States enjoys this luxury of open democratic debate...

Also it would be great if the candidates could get beyond dropping simple sound bites about Putin's soul or seeing KGB in his eyes.

Just FYI:

MT: "Michael McFaul, a Russia expert and political science professor at Stanford, is leading Obama's Russia team."

Mcfaul, with Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, wrote one of the most misleading anti-Russian articles in recent memory (The Myth of the Authoritarian Model:
How Putin's Crackdown Holds Russia Back, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2008).

That would be pretty ironic if McFaul, of the ultra-conservative Hoover Institution where Condi Rice worked were now with Obama. Too bad Coleen doesn't offer any link to support her statement.

And if he is helping Obama, he's doing a woefully bad job of it. Shame on him!

It seems that everything and everybody, no matter how significant they are, is "misleading" unless they agree with anonymous and insignificant Little Miss Coleen.

Got that straight now, Robert? Apply to Colleen from now on whenever you want to publish anything. She'll tell you if it's OK or not.

LOL.

What a flake.

Btw, I am coming to think that Brzezinski is yet another one of those elders statesmen who used to hate Russia, but have now reversed course later in life.

Sure, he throws out some daggers every once in a while (I'm thinking in particular of a speech in Kiev a few months ago) - maybe to try to keep a public anti-Russian appearance ("cred"), who knows.

But if you read between the lines and listen closely to his recent interviews, you would see a man who wants to cooperate with a strong Russia, rather than try to destroy a weak Russia.

You can add Henry Kissinger, who adores Putin, Tom Lantos, George Soros (Obama supporter), and Richard Lugar (a Republican Senator supporting Obama) to a decent-sized list of older men and women who have experienced a sort of metamorphosis.

Who set this trend? Maybe it was Winston Churchill, who strove for peace and cooperation with the Soviet Union just six years after Fulton, only to be rebuffed by the likes of the miserly John Foster Dulles.

Oh, my post prior to the most recent one didn't go through.

Just wanted to note that the McFaul quote came from The Moscow Times: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2008/01/28/002.html

JAMES:

My point wasn't that McCain has more foreign policy experience, though he certainly does. It was that his Russia policy is far more advanced and explicit than any other candidate, something for which your post did not give him credit.

I'm with you all the way on calling for debate. But the sad fact is that the MSM is too feeble to extract it, which is why your blog and mine exist. But the blogosphere isn't powerful enough to compel such a debate, so we must live with the realities. Doing so, there is simply no question than we must support John McCain, and I'd suggest you think about doing so more actively on this blog. Doing otherwise would not be consistent with the goals of your blog.

As for Brzezinski, my point wasn't that he hasn't published anything, it was that he hasn't published anything IMPORTANT and isn't a major factor in setting or influence Russia policy. Frankly, I think it's both naive and stupid for him to advise us "how to avoid a new cold war." Instead, he should be advising us how to win it. I doubt, however, that he can be of much use on that score. Don't forget, he's closely associated with the disastrous presidency of Jimmy Carter.

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