Can Dmitri Medvedev become the moderate that everyone hopes he will be? Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post argues that this will depend upon his ability to uproot the siloviki, and Putin may allow them to be "tossed to the anti-corruption wolves of public opinion" in order to regain Russia's great power status:
Putin saved Russian provinces the trouble and expense of having primaries, which were all held in Putin's mind. With his encouragement, Medvedev has given "campaign" speeches that promise respect for the rule of law, more personal freedoms, a much-reduced state role in the economy and cooperation with other countries, including the United States.
Were Medvedev to carry out these promises, he would have to uproot the siloviki, the ex-KGB officers Putin has installed both in the Kremlin and in corporate jobs where they have raked off fortunes. He would also reverse Russia's march away from democracy that has created much of the recent tension between Washington and Moscow.Putin, of course, may be playing a cynical, short-term game by extending such promises through Medvedev. He is warning the siloviki that they can be tossed to the anti-corruption wolves of public opinion if they ever cross him. Internationally, a more moderate stance by Russia as a new U.S. president is being chosen may be an effort to coax the acknowledgment of Russia's return as a global power that Putin craves.
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Were Medvedev to carry out these promises, he would have to uproot the siloviki, the ex-KGB officers Putin has installed both in the Kremlin and in corporate jobs where they have raked off fortunes.
Two things I think need to be kept in mind when making statements like this.
1. The "siloviki" themselves are not a united group. I don't know if we can yet speak of a "hardline" and "softline" faction (if there is, it appears that Sechin and Ivanov are part of the "hardline"), but we do know that they are far from united. Medvedev is Putin's attempt to hold the glue that keeps them from bringing their infighting to the next level. These people are not like the oligarchs Putin uprooted. They are petty well entrenched in the Russian elite and in the Ministries/corporate structure. If Medvedev moved against them, the only one who would be uprooted is Medvedev. I doubt he's looking to become the next Khrushchev.
2. Whatever "liberal" talk Medvedev makes, that doesn't mean he sees the "siloviki" as a fetter to it. I would gather that he doesn't think so. We are seeing the formation of a real elite in Russia (or a reconstitution of an old one), unlike the pseudo-elite of the 1990s who believed that having money and a few Kremlin connections were enough. To suggest that Medvedev is somehow outside or against the class interests of the top players is wishful thinking.
When Putin arrived on the scene, there were hopes in the western press that he would be the liberal they were all hoping for. We saw how that turned out.
Sure there is a possibility that Medvedev might institute a thaw of sorts, but that will never undermine the elite whose consent keeps him in power. That is assuming of course that Dima doesn't build a clan base of his own in the next few years. It appears that even Putin didn't do that. He has always seemed to tower above and manage his boyar factions.
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February 23, 2008 7:48 PM
Posted on February 23, 2008 19:48