Robert Amsterdam

Russian Military restructures to controversy over electoral implications and the Possibility of a Third Term

From the Eurasia Daily Monitor:

A huge bureaucratic surprise occurred in Moscow on February 15 when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced new appointments in the government, typically providing very little explanation for his sovereign decisions.

Most attention was focused on defense minister Sergei Ivanov’s elevation from deputy to first deputy prime minister. He now is equal in rank with Dmitry Medvedev, which perfectly aligns Putin’s two presumed “successors” (Vremya novostei, February 16; Rossiiskaya gazeta, February 17).

Russian media is full of comments about the new equilibrium between Ivanov and Medvedev in the presidential race. However, there are three less obvious -- but probably more meaningful -- implications of this round of Kremlin “musical chairs.” First, Putin has proven yet again that he is the “decider” and should not be mistaken for a lame duck. While he has not fired anybody this time around, he has shown that the power to reward and punish remains entirely in his hands (Grani.ru, February 16). Not only did he gain some maneuvering room by pitting the two key contenders so neatly against each other, he also demonstrated his ability to pull yet another surprise and reserved the option to appoint a “dark horse” as prime minister and fresh favorite in the contest. Since the political elite has finally accepted as fact that Putin is really going to step down next year, announcing the “difficult decision” to accept a third term could be a perfect surprise indeed.